Fish Fear Me

Uh Oh

I'm getting the feeling that the sense of calm right now is only the eye of a hurricane:

Ukrainian soldiers authorized to use weapons by acting president

Ukrainian soldiers serving in Crimea have been authorized to use their weapons to defend themselves, according to the acting Ukrainian president's press service. 

The order comes only hours after a Ukrainian serviceman was shot and killed on Tuesday at a Ukrainian base that came under attack in Crimea's main town of Simferopol and acting Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said the Crimean conflict has now entered a "military phase."

Crimean forces take Ukrainian navy HQ

Crimea's self-defense forces on Wednesday stormed the Ukrainian navy headquarters in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, taking possession without resistance a day after Russia signed a treaty with local authorities to annex the region.

An Associated Press photographer witnessed several hundred self-defense forces take down the gate and make their way onto the headquarters' premises. They then raised the Russian flag on the square by the headquarters.

They also took away the head of the Ukrainian navy, Sergey Gaiduk, prompting this response from Ukraine:

Ukraine's Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov issued a 9 p.m. (3 p.m. ET) deadline for Crimea to release all hostages and stop all provocations, a statement on the presidential website said.

It warned that if all hostages, including Gaiduk, were not released by the deadline, authorities would take action of "technical and technological character," likely meaning turning off utilities.

And that, my friends, would probably mean at least the threat of a further Russian invasion of Ukraine, if not simply the real deal right off the bat. 

Hopefully the Ukrainians will not give Putin his reason, but the opportunities for this to blow up into full scale war are numerous. One misstep will do it.

Oh, and this is not welcome either:

Russia signaled concern on Wednesday at Estonia's treatment of its large ethnic Russian minority, comparing language policy in the Baltic state with what it said was a call inUkraine to prevent the use of Russian.

Russia has defended its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by arguing it has the right to protect Russian-speakers outside its borders, so the reference to linguistic tensions in another former Soviet republic comes at a highly sensitive moment.

Bringing that up at this moment is a thinly-veiled and deliberate threat, probably in response to Biden's visit to the Baltics today. I don't believe anything is imminent there with the Ukraine situation so explosive, but NATO should respond with more exercises in the Baltics, and perhaps a shift of some of the US EURCOM forces to permanent bases in the Baltics. 

We Will Have Peace For Our Time-Part 3

As I write this the polls have closed in Crimea and the preliminary results are expected later today. I have little doubt that the result will be in favor of Crimea joining Russia. If the voters don't do it on their own, I'm sure Putin and his allies in Crimea will see to the proper result. It's not going to end with Crimea either. Increasing chaos and violence in Eastern Ukraine, no doubt fomented by Russia, is nothing less than a prelude to a repeat of the process in the Russian-speaking areas there. Given the weak response from the US and EU so far, not to mention the rest of the world, and the apparently limited economic options on the table, it would surprise me if Putin didn't decide to push it up a notch.

While I wait for the results I'll go back to a question I asked two weeks ago; Should Ukraine as it is today even be saved? It's pretty obvious that the Ukraine of two weeks ago won't be saved. Crimea is gone, and soon big chunks of Eastern Ukraine may be also. But it's still a reasonable question.

Unfortunately, after two weeks and dozens and dozens of articles and opinion pieces the answer still eludes me. The truth is, in all of the tangled mix of ethnicity, cultures, factions, and history of Ukraine, there is no easy answer. The ugly truth is that good guys, especially in the years since Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union, are hard to come by. Larger powers can take some of the responsibility for Ukraine being an economic and political basket case, but for the most part Ukrainians have no one but themselves to blame.

All of the various factions there seem unable to share power fairly and restrain themselves from taking turns at looting the country and generally crapping on their opponents any way they can. With that in mind, maybe Ukraine should break apart. Western Ukraine can forge the ties it wants to the EU and Eastern Ukraine can join with Russia in whatever manner they choose.

Boy, it's difficult to accept that view, because then one possible conclusion is that Putin isn't carving up Ukraine so much as managing an inevitable break up. A break up that coincides with his schemes, no doubt about that, but one that would also provide a measure of self determination without a civil war.

Ugh.

No, I'm not going down that road, not least of all because Russia has grossly violated Ukraine's sovereignty and that must not be sanctioned or we'll get even more Russian aggression. But then, in the short term I think we're in for more Russian aggression anyway. 

Like many people, I think Putin is going to keep Crimea. Yesterday the Russian military made its first excursion outside of Crimea, seizing a natural gas pumping station near the town of Strilkove. Reports differ on whether Russian troops remain there today. In any case, it's a clear warning in advance of the referendum results that Russia is prepared to take control of critical infrastructure from Ukraine if it attempts to retaliate by shutting down essential services to Crimea.

There are already plenty of troops ready to pour into Ukraine from Crimea and today we see pictures of more troops and military vehicles massing in Russia near Ukraine's eastern border. At this point Russian forces could roll in at any time. Putin is just looking for an excuse and he'll manufacture one if he has to. It could happen sooner than we think.

Can the EU and US stop Russia from taking another chunk of Ukraine? 

As far as I can tell, so far the announced visa bans and asset freezes against Russians have been as real as a $3 bill. Oh, they were announced by Obama and Kerry with great fanfare over a week ago alright, but one little detail that has limited their effectiveness is that no names appear to have been attached to those sanctions. That is supposed to change tomorrow, when names allegedly will be named.

We'll see though, because at that point things will get real for the EU and US and they will have to be prepared for Russian retaliation. Since neither was prepared for the Russian move into Crimea in the first place, or how to respond to it, I'll believe it when I see it. I'll be watching for concrete action, not another round of bluster and empty words. So, of course will Putin.

But how far are the EU and US prepared to go? How far is Putin prepared to go?

I think what's happening in Ukraine is more than a crime of opportunity. Yes, events there forced Putin's hand(in his mind) at the end of February, but I'll bet that he and his advisers have long gamed the possibility of Russian invasion and likely Western responses. Unlike the EU and US, he knows how far he is willing to go. After the last two weeks of dithering and confusion between the EU and US, I think he knows how far they will go better than their leaders do themselves. Or more likely, he knows what our own leaders are not willing to tell us in the West.

The fact is, right now the EU and the US are more invested in and dependent on relations with Russia than the reverse and it shows. The EU will try to impose only targeted economic sanctions against individuals because they can't impose broader sanctions without risking major economic damage to themselves. The US will try to impose only targeted economic sanctions against individuals because Obama still wants Russian help on a number of issues, from Syria and Iran to nuclear weapons reductions. But Putin does not have to play that game and almost certainly won't. 

More likely he will play tit-for-tat and dare the EU and US to raise the stakes. It's quite possible that he will instigate a provocation in Eastern Ukraine and raise the stakes himself, if Ukraine doesn't miscalculate and give him an excuse on their own. What are we going to do, go to war?

I very much hope I'm wrong here, but I think we'll do far less than that. The leaders of Europe and Barack Obama are not going to be willing to give up the economic and diplomatic initiatives and relationships they cherish. I think we will see lots of bluster but little in the way of serious effort, an economic payoff to Western Ukraine to make submitting to Russia more palatable, and even a failure to take the steps necessary to prevent Putin from turning his gaze towards the Baltic states.

We will have peace for our time.

More: As expected, the vote went for secession. Expect a statement from Obama and the EU by early afternoon Eastern time. 

We Will Have Peace For Our Time-Part 2

I ended Part 1 with the following question:

Should Ukraine as it is today even be saved?

Before I get to that, however, there are some other events and other perspectives to note.

First, please note that even if I get somewhat clinical or dispassionate in tone, I think the Russian invasion is illegal and outrageous. It should not stand. There are limits though, to how far we Americans should go in opposing it. We should not, for one example, get in a shooting war with Russia over this. I think that's a reasonable and broadly held view.

Water and power. I've read several reports now that Crimea is dependent on the rest of Ukraine for most, if not all, of its power and drinking water. At first glance that would seem like a serious vulnerability. How can you annex a province that depends on water and power from what would absolutely be a hostile nation? Some have suggested that Ukraine should "shut off the power for 15 minutes" to highlight that vulnerability.

That would be a serious mistake. I don't know Ukraine's power and water infrastructure, or how much of it Russia would have to seize to ensure deliver of both to Crimea, but you can bet that Russian tanks would be 5 miles in from the border before those 15 minutes were up. It's possible that Putin is just itching for a reason to grab more of Ukraine and this would give him one, in his mind.

Russian perspective. American and Europeans need to step back and look at this from Russia's point of view. Not to defend the Russian invasion or excuse it, but because it is generally helpful to understand one's opponent and their perspective on events, even if you reject that view. There's a pretty good article about that at the Atlantic Council. 

Not Russian Troops? Several times this week, Putin and his foreign minister have claimed that the non-Ukrainian troops deployed across Crimea are not Russian(they are operating without national insignia) and they have no control over them. This is uundoubtedly an (implausible)attempt to preserve plausible deniability if Putin sees the need to walk back from all of this. 

A reasonable argument can be made for letting the Russians play this game for a little while, but by the time sanctions are imposed, which appears to be very close today, the US should present concrete evidence, not just talking points. I'm talking about pictures, naming specific units and their commanders. In other words, a prosecution-like case, not a political one. It not good enough to just show up and hurl accusations, you have to do the work. That's where Obama botched it with the use of chemical weapons in Syria and it led to a debacle. He and Kerry must not allow that to happen again with Ukraine.

Oh, and I've seen accusations that using troops without identifying insignia on their uniforms was a violation of the Geneva Conventions, and I was wondering about that too, but apparently that's not the case. It still doesn't seem right to me, but unless I see a strong rebuttal I'll have to reluctantly agree.

Yep. The predictable secession referendum has been set for March 16. Any doubts on what the results will be if it occurs as planned?

Sanctions. Today the US began to put in place a targeted sanction regime: 

The Obama order targets any assets held in the United States by "individuals and entities" responsible for the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, threatening its territorial integrity or seeking to assert governmental authority over any part of Ukraine without authorization from the Ukrainian government in Kiev.

The EU came up with a milder reaction today that I won't even call sanctions. To be fair, they have more at stake financially than the US does. There's a good article at the BBC about that, and more here.

I'm not opposed to limited or targeted sanctions, but the US and EU need to be careful, as do the Russians. The Russians are sure to respond to sanctions in some way and Obama has to make sure things don't escalate to the point where they get out of hand.

Surprise. I think it's disappointing that our intelligence agencies were apparently surprised about Russia's move into Crimea. Some estimates say as many as 6,000 troops were moved into Crimea in addition to the Russian military personnel who were already there. If that's the case and we missed it then I think it's fair to say that some priorities need to be reviewed given the billions we spend every year on intelligence gathering. To put it mildly.

And what about our State Department and the White House, including Obama? It's one thing to be taken by surprise that an event actually occurred, but the initial disarray and confusion makes it appear that they had not even developed contingency plans on how to react to the possibility of Russian intervention. Both Obama and Kerry appeared to be caught flat-footed on how to react, and it's another in a long string of being unprepared for events around the world.

Now is not the time to get too deep into that, but before the November elections Democrats are going to have to face what a hash Obama and Kerry and Clinton have made out of America's foreign policy.

Uh-oh. Looks like I need a part 3.

We Will Have Peace For Our Time-Part 1

I think it's fairly obvious at this point that Russia, with the permission of the locals, is going to annex Crimea. Too many steps have been taken that cannot easily be walked back. The only questions now are how many more provinces of Ukraine are going to be added to the list, how much blood will be shed, and what if anything, should the West do about it?

It appears that pro-Russian people in Crimea have seized complete control of the civilian government there and that Russian military forces have surrounded Ukrainian military forces in Crimea as well as seized control of border crossings into the rest of Ukraine. Fox News reports:

On Sunday, a senior Obama administration official told reporters that Russia had taken "complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula, some 6,000-plus airborne and naval forces, with considerable materiel [equipment].

"There is no question," the official continued, "that they are in an occupation position in Crimea, that they are flying in reinforcements, and they are settling in."

I have an open mind to anyone who can give me a credible explanation of how the Russians are going to back off from that. One thing that might do it, the restoration of the previous Ukrainian regime, appears to be unacceptable to the new one. Even if it were acceptable, serious lines have been crossed and it may be impossible to rebuild whatever trust level allowed Crimea to remain part of Ukraine in the first place.

The next step will be the removal of any remaining Ukrainian military forces in Crimea. Reports this morning that an ultimatum was issued to those forces to surrender or be attacked have now been denied by Russia. It's possible that some troops and sailors will defect, one high ranking officer in the Ukraine navy already has, but almost certainly some will remain loyal.

I think Russia will try to negotiate the removal of those troops and sailors and give them safe passage out of Crimea. Killing them or holding them hostage will be a step too far even for the Russians.  

If they can manage that, I think Putin's next move will be to demand for Crimea the right to self-determination and a referendum. If that's allowed, and show me who's going to stop it, the pro-Russian majority will vote to become part of Russia and there you go. That might be the end of it.

Or maybe not.  

Putin may have an even grander ultimate goal, as Crimea is not the only predominately ethnic Russian part of Ukraine. This map from Business Insider helps tell the tale:

(click to enlarge)

It's quite possible that significant unrest in Eastern Ukraine could prompt a similar invasion from Russia in those areas as well. The prelude for that may already have begun:

DONETSK, Ukraine (Reuters) - Pro-Russian demonstrators occupied the regional government building in east Ukraine's city of Donetsk on Monday, where they presided as besieged lawmakers voted to hold a referendum, without saying what the public would be asked to decide upon.

The chaotic scene in the heart of Ukraine's Russian-speaking east was one of the boldest actions yet by pro-Russian youths after several days of rallies in eastern and southern cities that Kiev says are organized by Moscow as a pretext to invade.

And this at the same link:

A protest in the eastern city of Kharkiv turned bloody on Saturday, with scores of people hurt in clashes when pro-Moscow demonstrators wielding chains and axe handles stormed the regional government building. Kharkiv was quiet on Monday.

It's more complicated ethnically and culturally than just Ukrainian vs. Russian though. And I have little doubt that seizing the eastern provinces of Ukraine would result in bloodshed, even if it is relatively short-lived. It would also provoke a furious diplomatic response that even Putin couldn't side-step or ignore. 

Russia has paid little or no price for its continued military occupation of parts of Moldova and Georgia. I don't like it, but I can see how Putin can think he can get away with little long term damage in snatching up Crimea. Anything more would probably be a gross miscalculation, but history is full of examples of that. Putin might not be an exception.

The question at hand for the West is how it should respond. Before that though, there's another question:

Should Ukraine as it is today even be saved?