Fish Fear Me

Pagami Creek Fire-9/20

The weather has been very cooperative the last few days with fairly light winds and some decent moisture. Today and tomorrow will see a good soaking rain to keep things tamped down even more.

I guess the fire hasn't moved much, but the lack of up to date maps is becoming rather frustrating. The best that I can see is dated Saturday morning and is already out of date regarding the organization of firefighting efforts(click image to enlarge):

You can see the firefighting efforts have been divided into divisions. Division A is in the upper NW corner of the fire and divisions B, C, and D run east from there along the northern edge of the fire. Divisions Z, Y, X, and W run south and southeast from Division A. 

Division A is the cornerstone of the efforts on the northern and western sides of the fire and where much of the containment is, though now that it is listed as 23% contained today it's hard to tell without an updated map. The Inciweb update for today has the game plan:

Division A: Hold; Division B/C: Construct direct line and hoselay; Division D: Continue to recon and prepare for use of fireline explosives. Division Z: Scout for hotspots around Clearwater lake; Division W: Continue to secure lines. Division X: Hold and mop up. Division T/U/V - Scout and Recon.

I'm guessing divisions T/U/V have been carved out of what is shown as Division D on the map, along the eastern side of the fire. I don't know though, since there's no current map.

Total personnel has risen to 738.

The major concern remains the blowdown areas to the north and east of the fire. I'm very interested in seeing what kind of progress is being made on those sides of the fire. If the fire makes it into those blowdown areas it could run all the way to the Gunflint trail and/or burn until winter snows finally smother it. Those blowdown areas hold an incredible amount of fuel in the form of millions of downed trees. Many of those trees are not on the forest floor where they would rot away more quickly, but air dried in a tangled mess above it. That's why many of us familiar with the area get so twitchy about fire approaching those areas. It's the kind of situation that the word "conflagration" was made for.

But enough with the gloom and frustration, things actually are going quite well right now and the next couple of days should be good ones for everybody.

Pagami Creek Fire-9/16

Update II(8:00 PM): I just listened to the WTIP interview with the PIO for the fire and it sounds like the fire behaved quite favorably today and they are somewhat optimistic about tomorrow, even though the winds are due to pick up. Two direct quotes are "Didn't move much at all" regarding today, and "Don't expect any significant growth tomorrow."  Well, that optimism surprises me a little, but they're the pros.

The PIO also gave two numbers: 8% for a containment figure in the NW corner and 93,472 as the revised amount of acreage burned.

There's still a good chance for rain on Sunday. Not enough to douse the fire, but maybe enough to keep the situation in the favor of the fire crews.

Wildfire Today has some cool satellite photos of the smoke plume from the fire and very interesting info on the effects of smoke plumes in general.

Update: There's a great map from an Ely, Mn outfitter at the link that shows the blowdown areas and the fire. There's a finger that drops down from the main part and an area to the east that I didn't think the fire was so close to. Those areas may have a smaller percentage of trees that were downed than the northern section, but I'm not sure.

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There don't appear to be any map updates yet, but Inciweb has a good text update available this morning:

Moderated fire behavior continued yesterday with the cooler temperatures, higher humidities, and lighter winds. Operations personnel made significant progress on both the northern and southern perimeters. Firefighters attacked the northwestern corner and pushed east along the northern perimeter. On the western flank, a crew began constructing line starting at Clearwater Lake and working toward the northwest. Sprinkler systems were installed on two portages. The southern divisions mopped up a small spot fire south of Bog Lake. Outside the wilderness, bulldozers were used to clear line and engine crews supported hand crews.

With the wind coming from the south today I'm not all that worried about the southern perimeter where there is road access outside of the BWCA. If the wind is right I wonder if they may attempt some controlled burns along the southern flanks that are in wilderness area.

I'm still very concerned about the northern perimeter and the massive blowdown area roughly six miles to the north. There's still a huge number of trees that went down in 1999 and they have not rotted away yet. If that fire gets in there it's big, big trouble. It has been quiet the last few days with the calm winds and high humidity, but the winds are forecast to pick up today and blow from the south. I'm glad to hear them say that "significant progress" was made along that line but I question just how much and how strong any of that progress could be with the resources they have. The northern perimeter is at least 20 miles long, though there are some good sized lakes in there too. That's still a lot of ground. 

Activities for today are:

· Continue to provide for the safety of the public and firefighters.

· Extend hose lays further east along the northern perimeter.

· Continue to construct line along the southern perimeter outside the wilderness before attacking the flanks within the wilderness.

· Complete water-safety training and other orientation with newly arrived crews.

· Host a community meeting at the Isabella Community Center at 11:00 a.m.

· Staff a Joint Information Center from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. at the Kawishiwi Ranger District Office in Ely.

I guess "pray that the fire doesn't make a strong run to the north" is in our hands.

Pagami Creek Fire-9/15(Updated)

Not much new to report this morning. Inciweb, the federal portal for incident updates, doesn't have a new one up as of 10:00 AM.

It appears that the federal Type 1 Incident Management Team has arrived and 5 20-person hot shot crews will hit the fire today. That brings the number of personnel up to about 500.

The Twin Cities media have latched on to local complaints that the fire was allowed to burn for three weeks before it got out of hand the last week. Historically there has been tension between locals in the Ely area and federal  government policies and personnel. The creation of the BWCA changed a way of life in the area with the restrictions on motor use and access back in the 1960s and 70s. Most of the anger from that time has dissipated and people have adjusted, but there's still an undercurrent there. This fire is going to bring that out again as it damages a large part of what is arguably the most popular part of the BWCA. People are already fearing how it will affect tourism next year, and tourism is the lifeblood of that community.

My own take is focus on the fire right now and do a thorough investigation afterward. Clearly it has turned out to be a mistake to let this fire burn as long as it did, even if it is an understandable mistake. It should be approached as a lessons learned exercise and left at that unless negligence is found. If the latter is discovered, let the chips fall where they may.

Another potential spot of controversy may be the availability of air assets to help fight the fire. A gentleman named Bill Gabbert, who has extensive experience fighting wildfires, runs a website named wildfiretoday.com. He appears to be retired from government employment, but he still has an inside track on info that is interesting. He has some general posts on the Pagami Creek fire and one very interesting one about the lack of air assets available to fight wildfires nationwide. I haven't seen that pop up in the Twin Cities media yet, but it could.

If you are not familiar with the area, take a look at the maps I posted yesterday. The entire BWCA is roadless wilderness composed of lakes, rivers and streams, and forest. It is difficult terrain to fight fires in and very dangerous in that there is no quick way to flee a sudden burst or shift that the fire takes. It is pretty much impossible for heavy equipment to get in there and I don't think it would be allowed even if it could. The hot shot crews that go in there are pretty much going to have to canoe in and fight it by hand and with whatever water pumps they can manage to bring in. 

I'm hoping we get some word today on the strategy that they will be working the next few days. The NWS forecast has a south wind from 5-10 mph on Friday, growing to 5-15 and gusts up to 20mph on Saturday. As I noted yesterday, that could be a big problem. A really big problem. 

(Update) As of 8:00 PM there are no new maps for this fire on either Inciweb.org or MNICS.org. That probably doesn't matter since the fire does not appear to have grown more than a couple of hundred yards in any direction. Today's update at Inciweb leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to keeping us updated, but today was a transition day to the Type 1 IMT, so I expect that to improve in the next few days.

From that update and an interview on WTIP this morning, it sounds like the primary efforts today were on the south side outside the BWCA. There, forest service and old logging roads could be used to bring in heavy equipment to build fire breaks and fire rigs and crews to directly attack the fire. It sounds like the other area that was attacked hard by crews today was the NW corner of the fire.

I know there are crews working deeper into the BWCA along the northern side because the Strib had a story about a group that had a close call with the fire on Lake Insula a couple of days ago. I am very interested in efforts along the north side because that's where the blowdown danger is.

From the WTIP interview they said that the helicopters will mostly be used in the south and the air tankers in the north and east. Can the tankers and hot shot crews build a line in that terrain along the north side?

I expect the next current map will show significant improvement of containment along an eight or ten mile chunk in the south and several miles of containment expansion in the NW. I will be very impressed if there is any significant containment on the north or east.

The latest forecast tonight for Ely, Mn shows an uptick in winds for Friday and Saturday. Friday's south winds are forecast at 10-15 mph with gusts as high as 20. Saturday is looking like 5-15 mph with gusts as high as 30. No precipitation is in the forecast now until later on Saturday night. It's a race to see how much the crews and tankers can do to contain or dramatically slow the fire to the north before the wind pushes it into the blowdown areas. 

I hope I'm wrong, but as of tonight I think they are going to lose.

Pagami Creek Fire-Up To Speed

I spent a little time tonight getting up to speed on the Pagami Creek fire in northern Minnesota. Most of the fire is in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, but an area on the south side of the fire appears to have moved out of the wilderness area by up to 2 miles or so. From what I could gather from various sources, calmer winds and light rain and snow probably kept the fire from moving much today. It is probably still around 100,000 acres 

Below the fold are some maps and more perspective.

Uh Oh

We have another major wildfire going in northern Minnesota, this time on the western side of the BWCA. It apparently started weeks ago, but had only smoldered until dry conditions and strong winds pushed it beyond its expected borders.

It's being called the Pagami Creek Fire and I heard on Monday and it had reportedly grown to 13,000 acres. Yesterday it was 30,000 acres. This morning they were saying 100,000 acres after getting a better view through the smoke, and that it was brushing up against one part of the massive and still feared blowdown area from 1999. To say all of that is alarming is an understatement.

This wildfire is already bigger than the record Ham Lake Fire of 2007. I'll be digging into this one a lot more.

More: Inciweb reports that as of today there are 220 personnel on site. Airplanes have been trying to slow the spread but have been hampered by winds and smoke. Four MN National Guard helicopters have been mobilized and our friends in Manitoba are sending three more plans. A Type I Incident Management Team request is either being prepared or a team is on the way, it's not clear. Either way, my guess is there will be a Type 1 IMT here soon and then we are going to see a lot more resources pouring in.