Fish Fear Me

Great Start

The Twins took three out of four out in LA and now they are going for the sweep in Chicago after winning 2-1 today. They took last night's game 4-3 in extra innings. Scott Baker earned his way out of the doghouse by working seven full innings and allowing just one run today. Nice job, Scott. I take back all those nasty things I yelled at the TV last Monday.

The Twins are 5-1 and off to their best start in a long time. I went back to 1999 on MLB.com and didn't find anything that good. Throw on top that they've been on the road and up against the White Sox and the Angels, neither of which are slouch teams, and you've got something to feel pretty good about. 

Speaking of on the road, it does seem a little strange that they couldn't come up with a better schedule than the one that had the Twins arriving in Chicago yesterday at 6:30 in the morning. That's after their last game in LA ended after midnight CDT. Then last night's game went 11 innings and today's game started at noon, so I'm kind of surprised that they were able to win both under those circumstances. 

That's Better

Okay, I'll get the silly stuff out of the way first: JJ Hardy is on a pace to hit 108 home runs this year!

Yeah, yeah, I know. It's early, but I like the start from the seven and eight spots in the lineup. Delmon Young and Hardy have combined for three home runs and five RBIs in three games. I'll take that from the bottom of the order. So far Hardy is also looking very solid on defense too. It's way too early to start judging the Hardy-Gomez trade, but so far, so good for the Twins.

The Twins can do no worse than a split with the Angels after winning last night on Carl Pavano's seven strong innings. Nick Blackburn went 6.2 the night before. After Scott Baker's dismal opener performance, that was good to see. The bullpen has also come through the last two games after Jose Mijares' also crappy appearance in the first game. A strong start from Kevin Slowey tonight would make me much more comfortable that the starting rotation is getting off to a fast start this year, unlike the last two seasons. 

Jon Rauch made his second appearance as closer and got the save after giving up a couple of hits and a run with two outs in the ninth. I hope he takes command of the closer role, but let's just say I'm still skeptical about that.

Baseball

As I write this, the Twins are about 20 minutes away from starting the 2010 regular season against...um...who the heck are they this year? Is it still the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, or just the Los Angeles Angels? Or just the Angels maybe? Or the LosAngelosAngelsofAnaheimCaliforniaUnitedStatesNorthAmericaEarthSolarSystemMilkyWayUniverse?

I'm guessing SolarSystemMilkyWayUniverse hasn't come into play yet because their lawyers have yet to arrive.

The above is not a knock on the players, more like a little dig at my SoCal friends and family. I like the Angels as a baseball team and will be hugely happy if the Twins can get out of the four game series with even a split. Excitement is high here with the new ballpark, the gloriously warm spring, and Joe Mauer safely locked up contractually for what passes as eternity in MLB.

My predictions for this year: The starting rotation pleasantly surprises. The lineup looks as good as advertised and proves deadly to most opposing pitchers. The defense improves with Hardy and Hudson. Ron Gardenhire, now apparently recoiling from my approval of "Closer by Committee", relents to my superior wisdom after a disastrous April and puts in whomever is hot in the ninth. The Twins settle on or trade for a closer in late July and he carries them to another AL Central Title. Twins 91-71, and no game 163 this year.

Game time. Whoohoo!

Closer By Committee

I love to follow the Twins, yet I know I will never be the most in-depth analyst when it comes to what they will or will not do. Once in while though, I get a few things right:

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said before today's game that he will begin the season with a closer-by-committee plan until further notice.

---- But that could change if the front office trades for a closer.

--- And it could change if they decide to approach Francisco Liriano one more time about closing.

A trade is the only realistic way that we won't see closer-by-committee for the next couple of months, at least. I don't think that Liriano has the mental toughness to be a day after day closer. I'd like to see him settle in as a solid fifth starter or as middle relief, but I think the pressure of the closer role would turn him into a basket case within a month. I also don't see any relievers who are obvious replacements for Nathan at this point. Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson are just going to have to deal with it.

If the starting rotation steps up and provides consistent quality starts then the committee plan will be okay. If not, it will be one hell of a mess.

That's That

Joe Nathan tested his arm this morning and the result was clear:

Twins closer Joe Nathan said today that he will undergo Tommy John ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow with an eye toward returning for Opening Day in 2011.

Nathan played catch with pitching coach Rick Anderson this morning. It was Nathan's first throwing session since he suffered a significant tear of his ulnar collateral ligament on March 6.

"Didn’t go like we hoped," Nathan said. "We knew it was a long shot, but what this did do is clear my head. Definitely was no gray area. Definitely was on the black side, where it didn’t go as well as we like, and we know now we’re going to have to go in and get some surgery done, get this thing fixed up."

Not unexpected, but still a bummer. I hope the surgery and recovery goes well for you, Joe.

What the Twins will do is anyone's guess. It looks like trade possibilities are pretty thin and at this point there is no obvious replacement in camp. My guess is that the Twins will not have a single designated closer for a good chunk of the season. Who takes the mound in the ninth will be determined by the lineup they're up against and who is fresh. If we're lucky, someone will step up and into the role by the All-Star break.

I'm Getting A Little Edgy Too

Jim Souhan throws the previously unthinkable out there:

Mauer still has more leverage than Pat Williams on a teeter-totter, but as negotiations have lagged, Mauer's hesitancy to accept a record-setting contract offer from his hometown team has made his signing less than a sure thing and raised this previously unthinkable question:

"Won't the Twins have to trade him if he refuses their best offer?"

That noise you heard was the collective gasp of Twins fans everywhere. But you know, the question is not out of line.

The guess is that the Twins have offered Mauer a franchise record $20 million per year for as many as 10 years. The actual details are being closely held, but that does not seem unrealistic. It's a lot of money and a fair amount of risk for a club like the Twins, but for a draw like Joe it is probably worth it. So what's the hang up on coming to a deal? It really is getting a little tedious.

Patience is in order for a little longer, but Souhan is right that the Twins have to think long-term here. If the Twins start to think that they are going to lose him anyway then, as Souhan puts it, the Santana Shuttle may come into play. I would really hate to see that, and I would really hate to see a guy like Mauer become just another athlete who grabs every bit of cash that he can. I haven't thought of him that way, but I'm starting to wonder.

Just a little.

Say It Isn't So, Joe

Oh boy. We're barely into spring training and closer Joe Nathan has a serious ligament tear in his throwing arm. The party line is that Nathan will work on strengthening his arm and will not throw for a couple of weeks and then they will see where he is at. They say that it is still possible for Nathan to pitch this year, but I'm highly skeptical.

Even if he is physically able to pitch in a couple of weeks, the injury will be hanging over him and the team for the entire season. "Is this the appearance where he tears it completely?" will be in the back of everyone's mind every time he walks to the mound. I would think that would be something Nathan would be thinking also. Perhaps he can put that aside and still pitch effectively, but I think that would require an extraordinary mental toughness that isn't fair to expect from anyone.

The fix for the elbow is total ligament replacement, the Tommy John surgery, and that would end this season for Nathan and maybe even see him out the next too. The Twins are already thinking about replacements and the only good news is that they have a ton of good arms competing for roster spots this spring. This will change the dynamics of that substantially and we'll have to see who steps up over the next few weeks. The news has unleashed a ton of speculation and the experts are coming out of the woodwork, but I think we'll just have to leave it in the capable hands of the Twins management and see what develops.

This is a blow to the club and the fans, but I really feel bad for Joe. He's at the top of his game and the Twins have a real chance to contend this year. And he's genuinely a good guy from all accounts. Good luck, Joe.

Twins Pitchers and Catchers Report

The Twins pitchers and catchers reported yesterday and held their first workouts in Ft. Myers today. All but Jose Mijares that is, who apparently screwed up what should have been a routine visa process. If there is one Twins player who could take advantage of every single day of spring training conditioning, it's the rather rotund Mijares.

There always has to be one.

About a week ago I ragged on StarTribune columnist Pat Ruesse. La Velle Neal has an anecdote today that shows that Reusse, who passed rotund years ago, may be a prick at times, but he's a clever prick:

Last year, Reusse is hacking away in the pressbox at Hammond Stadium when Mijares starts to warm up.

``I am having an out-of-body experience!'' Reusse yells for all to hear. ``I am sitting in the pressbox, watching myself warm up in the bullpen!''

Heh. Credit where due.