As I write this the polls have closed in Crimea and the preliminary results are expected later today. I have little doubt that the result will be in favor of Crimea joining Russia. If the voters don't do it on their own, I'm sure Putin and his allies in Crimea will see to the proper result. It's not going to end with Crimea either. Increasing chaos and violence in Eastern Ukraine, no doubt fomented by Russia, is nothing less than a prelude to a repeat of the process in the Russian-speaking areas there. Given the weak response from the US and EU so far, not to mention the rest of the world, and the apparently limited economic options on the table, it would surprise me if Putin didn't decide to push it up a notch.
While I wait for the results I'll go back to a question I asked two weeks ago; Should Ukraine as it is today even be saved? It's pretty obvious that the Ukraine of two weeks ago won't be saved. Crimea is gone, and soon big chunks of Eastern Ukraine may be also. But it's still a reasonable question.
Unfortunately, after two weeks and dozens and dozens of articles and opinion pieces the answer still eludes me. The truth is, in all of the tangled mix of ethnicity, cultures, factions, and history of Ukraine, there is no easy answer. The ugly truth is that good guys, especially in the years since Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union, are hard to come by. Larger powers can take some of the responsibility for Ukraine being an economic and political basket case, but for the most part Ukrainians have no one but themselves to blame.
All of the various factions there seem unable to share power fairly and restrain themselves from taking turns at looting the country and generally crapping on their opponents any way they can. With that in mind, maybe Ukraine should break apart. Western Ukraine can forge the ties it wants to the EU and Eastern Ukraine can join with Russia in whatever manner they choose.
Boy, it's difficult to accept that view, because then one possible conclusion is that Putin isn't carving up Ukraine so much as managing an inevitable break up. A break up that coincides with his schemes, no doubt about that, but one that would also provide a measure of self determination without a civil war.
Ugh.
No, I'm not going down that road, not least of all because Russia has grossly violated Ukraine's sovereignty and that must not be sanctioned or we'll get even more Russian aggression. But then, in the short term I think we're in for more Russian aggression anyway.
Like many people, I think Putin is going to keep Crimea. Yesterday the Russian military made its first excursion outside of Crimea, seizing a natural gas pumping station near the town of Strilkove. Reports differ on whether Russian troops remain there today. In any case, it's a clear warning in advance of the referendum results that Russia is prepared to take control of critical infrastructure from Ukraine if it attempts to retaliate by shutting down essential services to Crimea.
There are already plenty of troops ready to pour into Ukraine from Crimea and today we see pictures of more troops and military vehicles massing in Russia near Ukraine's eastern border. At this point Russian forces could roll in at any time. Putin is just looking for an excuse and he'll manufacture one if he has to. It could happen sooner than we think.
Can the EU and US stop Russia from taking another chunk of Ukraine?
As far as I can tell, so far the announced visa bans and asset freezes against Russians have been as real as a $3 bill. Oh, they were announced by Obama and Kerry with great fanfare over a week ago alright, but one little detail that has limited their effectiveness is that no names appear to have been attached to those sanctions. That is supposed to change tomorrow, when names allegedly will be named.
We'll see though, because at that point things will get real for the EU and US and they will have to be prepared for Russian retaliation. Since neither was prepared for the Russian move into Crimea in the first place, or how to respond to it, I'll believe it when I see it. I'll be watching for concrete action, not another round of bluster and empty words. So, of course will Putin.
But how far are the EU and US prepared to go? How far is Putin prepared to go?
I think what's happening in Ukraine is more than a crime of opportunity. Yes, events there forced Putin's hand(in his mind) at the end of February, but I'll bet that he and his advisers have long gamed the possibility of Russian invasion and likely Western responses. Unlike the EU and US, he knows how far he is willing to go. After the last two weeks of dithering and confusion between the EU and US, I think he knows how far they will go better than their leaders do themselves. Or more likely, he knows what our own leaders are not willing to tell us in the West.
The fact is, right now the EU and the US are more invested in and dependent on relations with Russia than the reverse and it shows. The EU will try to impose only targeted economic sanctions against individuals because they can't impose broader sanctions without risking major economic damage to themselves. The US will try to impose only targeted economic sanctions against individuals because Obama still wants Russian help on a number of issues, from Syria and Iran to nuclear weapons reductions. But Putin does not have to play that game and almost certainly won't.
More likely he will play tit-for-tat and dare the EU and US to raise the stakes. It's quite possible that he will instigate a provocation in Eastern Ukraine and raise the stakes himself, if Ukraine doesn't miscalculate and give him an excuse on their own. What are we going to do, go to war?
I very much hope I'm wrong here, but I think we'll do far less than that. The leaders of Europe and Barack Obama are not going to be willing to give up the economic and diplomatic initiatives and relationships they cherish. I think we will see lots of bluster but little in the way of serious effort, an economic payoff to Western Ukraine to make submitting to Russia more palatable, and even a failure to take the steps necessary to prevent Putin from turning his gaze towards the Baltic states.
We will have peace for our time.
More: As expected, the vote went for secession. Expect a statement from Obama and the EU by early afternoon Eastern time.
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