I think it's fairly obvious at this point that Russia, with the permission of the locals, is going to annex Crimea. Too many steps have been taken that cannot easily be walked back. The only questions now are how many more provinces of Ukraine are going to be added to the list, how much blood will be shed, and what if anything, should the West do about it?
It appears that pro-Russian people in Crimea have seized complete control of the civilian government there and that Russian military forces have surrounded Ukrainian military forces in Crimea as well as seized control of border crossings into the rest of Ukraine. Fox News reports:
On Sunday, a senior Obama administration official told reporters that Russia had taken "complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula, some 6,000-plus airborne and naval forces, with considerable materiel [equipment].
"There is no question," the official continued, "that they are in an occupation position in Crimea, that they are flying in reinforcements, and they are settling in."
I have an open mind to anyone who can give me a credible explanation of how the Russians are going to back off from that. One thing that might do it, the restoration of the previous Ukrainian regime, appears to be unacceptable to the new one. Even if it were acceptable, serious lines have been crossed and it may be impossible to rebuild whatever trust level allowed Crimea to remain part of Ukraine in the first place.
The next step will be the removal of any remaining Ukrainian military forces in Crimea. Reports this morning that an ultimatum was issued to those forces to surrender or be attacked have now been denied by Russia. It's possible that some troops and sailors will defect, one high ranking officer in the Ukraine navy already has, but almost certainly some will remain loyal.
I think Russia will try to negotiate the removal of those troops and sailors and give them safe passage out of Crimea. Killing them or holding them hostage will be a step too far even for the Russians.
If they can manage that, I think Putin's next move will be to demand for Crimea the right to self-determination and a referendum. If that's allowed, and show me who's going to stop it, the pro-Russian majority will vote to become part of Russia and there you go. That might be the end of it.
Or maybe not.
Putin may have an even grander ultimate goal, as Crimea is not the only predominately ethnic Russian part of Ukraine. This map from Business Insider helps tell the tale:
(click to enlarge)
It's quite possible that significant unrest in Eastern Ukraine could prompt a similar invasion from Russia in those areas as well. The prelude for that may already have begun:
DONETSK, Ukraine (Reuters) - Pro-Russian demonstrators occupied the regional government building in east Ukraine's city of Donetsk on Monday, where they presided as besieged lawmakers voted to hold a referendum, without saying what the public would be asked to decide upon.
The chaotic scene in the heart of Ukraine's Russian-speaking east was one of the boldest actions yet by pro-Russian youths after several days of rallies in eastern and southern cities that Kiev says are organized by Moscow as a pretext to invade.
And this at the same link:
A protest in the eastern city of Kharkiv turned bloody on Saturday, with scores of people hurt in clashes when pro-Moscow demonstrators wielding chains and axe handles stormed the regional government building. Kharkiv was quiet on Monday.
It's more complicated ethnically and culturally than just Ukrainian vs. Russian though. And I have little doubt that seizing the eastern provinces of Ukraine would result in bloodshed, even if it is relatively short-lived. It would also provoke a furious diplomatic response that even Putin couldn't side-step or ignore.
Russia has paid little or no price for its continued military occupation of parts of Moldova and Georgia. I don't like it, but I can see how Putin can think he can get away with little long term damage in snatching up Crimea. Anything more would probably be a gross miscalculation, but history is full of examples of that. Putin might not be an exception.
The question at hand for the West is how it should respond. Before that though, there's another question:
Should Ukraine as it is today even be saved?
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