The Incredible Ineptitude Of Barack Obama

Like most people who stay connected to the news, I figured that we would hear at some point yesterday that the expected attack on Syria had begun. Instead, we got Obama coming out of left field with a delay while he asks the approval of Congress. I applaud that, but somehow even when he does the right thing he manages to botch it. Well, he's botched everything else for the last week and a half, so why not that too?

Here's what I mean, from Obama's remarks yesterday:

Now, after careful deliberation, I have decided that the United States should take military action against Syrian regime targets. 

...

But having made my decision as Commander-in-Chief based on what I am convinced is our national security interests, I’m also mindful that I’m the President of the world’s oldest constitutional democracy. I’ve long believed that our power is rooted not just in our military might, but in our example as a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. And that’s why I’ve made a second decision: I will seek authorization for the use of force from the American people’s representatives in Congress.

Having twice said he had already made the decision, he then turns around and asks for permission from Congress. This was hailed as some sort of brilliant move by David Axelrod, who crowed on Twitter that "Congress is now the dog that caught the car." Uh huh. And if Congress fails to pass a resolution supporting his decision, what does he do then? After all, he's made it clear that he's made his decision.

Does he order the attack regardless? If he does, however, with Congress having exercised its Constitutional power over declarations of war in the negative in this case, would the military obey him? Should the military obey him? 

Those last two are pretty damn serious questions, and Congress should head them off by demanding that the rejection of any resolution would be binding on the president. The last thing we need is for Congress to reject Obama's request, Obama to then order the military to attack anyway, and senior military leaders to then split on whether or not it's actually a legal order. That would be a disaster, but it's one I could see Obama bungling his way into easily.

It's clear, in hindsight, that we should have had a better strategy in Syria the last two years. Finding moderate Sunni and Kurdish rebels and helping them build a credible fighting force that could also fend off the Sunni extremists should have been a higher priority. President Obama bears only a part of that blame. But his earlier "red line" mistake and the clumsy bluster, followed by weakness, followed by diplomatic failures of the last ten days are all on him. 

Once again, the first rule of holes applies to this president: Stop digging, goddammit!

There are probably only two possibilities at this point. Obama can back down, leading to a dangerous humiliation for the United States. Or, Obama can attack. 

That attack could still lead to humiliation if it is too weak, or it could set off a powder keg if it is too strong. As a bonus, in either case it could set off a Constitutional crisis if it takes place despite Congress declining to approve it. Or it could manage to thread the needle and turn out just right. I'll not be betting the house on that, or anything else.

There's a third choice, but since I've seen nobody mention it, it's probably too crazy to consider. I'll throw it out there anyway:

1. Build a case, a detailed criminal case, for what really happened that night and who the culpable parties are. Name the military units involved, their commanders, and the senior officers as far up the chain of command as the evidence goes. Declassify far more evidence than so far has been. The knowledge that we have been able to gather has already started to appear in press reports anyway, so stop being coy.
2. Present the case to the American people and the world as a crime against humanity. Not as a war crime, not as a justification for US military action(initially, at least), but as a clear crime against humanity. Demand that a court, either the ICC or another created by the UN for just this purpose, indict and try the responsible individuals.
3. Demand that the government of Syria turn over those named individuals and that Russia, China, and Iran support that demand. Iran will just laugh, but despite their support for the Assad regime, Russia and China want to deal with the rest of the world on matters far more important than Syria. Worldwide condemnation might get in the way of an awful lot of business for their elites. They would play ball to some extent, particularly if the US case was made ahead of time with the intent of boxing them into just such a corner.
4. If nothing else, a trial would be the best chance to actually provide justice to those murdered and their survivors. How much justice will they get from a few missile strikes, "carefully calibrated" to send a message, and likely to not bring those unnamed officials to account? Rather then meaningless attacks, why don't we try to bring the people responsible to trial and give real justice to the dead?
5. Properly played, such a move might also then lead to discussions about removing the chemical weapons completely in trade for some sort of political solution, including asylum somewhere for Assad and his closest supporters. The rest of the parties would work on some sort of power sharing political arrangement such as Lebanon's. 

The latter is probably about as likely as me hitting the lottery, but we try and if it fails we walk away. For damn sure it is better than us either doing some half-assed attack that has at best one chance in three of succeeding or completely destroying our national credibility by walking away. 

The third way will never happen, not just because Obama has boxed us in, but because too many of our elites are either too stupid or too greedy to see outside of that box. I think our media and political elites would love a splendid little war, as would any corporate interests set to make some money off of it. It would be a nice little lift going into the fall. 

So I'm pretty sure that another splendid war has been booked, unintended consequences or Constitutional crises be damned.