Fish Fear Me

Another Mass Shooting

The details are still getting sorted out in the Washington Naval Yard shooting, but the one that matters most is known: 12 dead victims(plus the gunman) and several others wounded. My heart goes out to those having to cope with the grief and loss from another seemingly incomprehensible mass shooting. 

Yesterday was another example of rumors and wild speculation running rampant through the news media as events unfolded. I would wish for more responsible coverage, but I've given up on that.

As of this morning there is still some confusion about the shooter, his history, and what may have been his motivation. Until we can fill in some of those blanks, I don't have much more to say.

FFL Update

As long as the Bengals DST doesn't score about five TDs tonight I should be able to go 2-0 so far this season, a much better start than the 0-3 from last year. Production dropped pretty much across the board this week, but I'm not panicking. Quite a few of my players had tough matchups yesterday, so I figured it might be a down week. The Minnesota DST came through for me though, and offset a big chunk of that downside with two TDs for me.

The Vikings aren't that good on defense this year, but both Cordarelle Patterson(kickoffs) and Marcus Sherels(punts) have great return skills. Patterson started the day with a 105 yard return for a TD and defensive fumble recovery and runback for a TD got me the second. The odds aren't good for a shutout from the Minnesota DST, but there's a reasonable chance of somebody scoring each week.

The Vikes couldn't close the deal yesterday in Chicago and fell to 0-2. I think Christian Ponder had a decent enough game to hang onto his job, barely. He wasn't helped by his receivers either. A drop by Jarius Wright in the end zone cost a TD and the failure of Jerome Simpson to attack the ball led to an interception. Not to mention perhaps a drop in confidence in him from Christian Ponder.

AP has had some moments in the sun, but he hasn't gotten traction like he did last year. He has 193 rushing yards after two games, an average which won't get him close to 2,000 yards let alone his goal of 2,500. 

Twelve Years

In some ways it is hard for me to believe that twelve years have passed. Maybe that shows in how it no longer pops into my head multiple times each day, but when it does the sadness, anger, and resolve are still there as strong as ever. Time, cynicism, the successes and failures in our responses since then, all have unsuccessfully beaten down on those emotions the last 12 years now. Hmmm, looking back on those now, it does seem like a long time. A tiring time.

Not as sad and tiring as it is for those who lost loved ones that day or since as the battles have raged around the world. Obviously. Today is to formally remember them and those they have lost, though they are still in our thoughts often the rest of the year.

Dear New York City,

Congratulations:

New York City voters rejected two scandal-scarred politicians trying for an electoral comeback: Former governor Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in 2008 in a prostitution scandal, lost a competitive race for city comptroller. Former representative Anthony Weiner, whose sexting cost him his congressional seat in 2011, came in fifth in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary.

The Spitzer loss was still a little too close in my book, but the, er, beating that Weiner took should make up for that.

Be vigilant though. This loss might not be enough to bury those undead political careers. I don't know what it would take in New York, but at least try to put the figurative stake in the heart. Otherwise it may turn out to be like one of those horror movies where everybody walks away thinking it's over, but the final scene shows a hand popping up out of the grave. 

In this case, hopefully it would be a hand.

Missing It

Harry Reid either missed the point of his opponents today or he's once again talking past them in an attempt to beat them on talking points alone: 

“If we allow [Bashar al-]Assad’s use of chemical weapons to go unchecked and unanswered, hostile forces around the work will also assume these terrible attacks of demons like Assad are permissible.” 

First, I don't think most people want to let Assad's attack go "unchecked and unanswered," they simply don't believe, for a bunch of plausible reasons, that an essentially unilateral US military strike is the best way to respond. From the start though, that's the only choice that has been offered. It would be helpful to the cause of political civility if Reid would have enough respect for his opponents to acknowledge that that's the real problem for most who disagree with him on this issue.

Second, I don't believe it necessarily follows that if we fail to attack Syria now, other nations will feel free to use their own stockpiles of chemical weapons at will. So suddenly Serbia or North Korea will feel they can deploy chemical weapons without consequence? I think that's nonsense.

The problem for Reid is that Obama has botched this from the start. His first task should have been to build a case, along with our allies, that clearly laid out the basis for the diplomatic equivalent of an indictment. At that point, threats of force could back up the diplomatic options. We got the opposite instead. Now our fearless leader is caught in the strange position of having threats of diplomacy back up his initial desire to use force. And it's Russian sponsored diplomacy at that.

Reid can put all the lipstick on this pig that he wants and splutter on and on about morals, but his failure to address the real arguments of his opponents is what will doom his efforts in the end.

We Dream

I've been having some "memorable" dreams the last few weeks for some reason. When I say memorable, I simply mean that I remember them when I wake up. That's opposed to what I would term "vivid" dreams, meaning I remember the dream and there was a sexual component as well. Sadly, I don't get a lot of those dreams.

In last night's dream, I was once again a senior buyer of printed materials, but the physical location was the place I had worked at just before that job. In the weird way that dreams work, I simultaneously recognized the difference and yet it didn't matter at all. 

Most of the dream consisted of me working with a female saleswoman for a printing company and we had some good discussions about past and upcoming work that she would bid on. It was very pleasant, but there was no sexual tension or anything like that. 

Oh, and the saleswoman was Lola Glaudini. Not someone who looked like her, it was her in her career as a printing company saleswoman.

Like I said, there wasn't anything sexual about it(not that I think she's not a beautiful woman by any means), but it was just a really nice dream. And in a rarity for a pleasant dream, when I woke up and rolled over a couple times, I went right back into the dream.  

Someday I might tell you about the weird ones.

Various Other Thoughts On Syria

My dad thinks that the resolution in Congress to authorize US military strikes against Syria will fail and that Obama will use that as an out. If things get worse in Syria in the following months he will blame Republicans in the runup to the 2014 elections. "Remember, everything is political with Obama," he says. He believes the threat of impeachment is what will keep Obama in check if the resolution fails to pass both chambers. 

I think Obama still wants military strikes to go forward and the talk late last week of expanded target lists is a signal for that. If he can at least get the Senate to approve a resolution then he will go forward and blame Republicans in the House as obstructionists. Some in the House will clamor for impeachment, but that will only gain traction if the situation escalates and/or Americans start dying. Or a serious error on the part of the US military leads to mass casualties. If that happens all bets are off. 

A very limited series of strikes that do not do much real damage will be mocked mercilessly in the region and around the world. More serious strikes that do some serious damage and sow confusion in the regime forces may prompt a renewed offensive from the rebels. The rebels will almost certainly plead with the US and its coalition of France to become their close air support just like Libya.

Even a limited strike carries the possibility of accidentally hitting chemical munitions and releasing whatever poison they hold. An NBC story highlights the five main facilities in the Syrian program, but the weapons themselves may be dispersed among 50 or more units in the Syrian military. I would also not put it past the Assad regime to stage a chemical release and then claim the US set it off. Any sort of mass casualty event, chemical or not, after we start shooting will be disastrous for the US. 

Will Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah retaliate? We should be reminded that we are talking about acts of war against Syria, no matter how justified we feel they may be. Syria would have a legal justification to respond against military targets in turn. I think if the attacks are not too severe, Syria will take its lumps and go back to trying to win the civil war it's in. Iran and Hezbollah will accept things and go back to their priorities as well.

However, if the attacks do real damage to the regime Iran and Hezbollah will come to the rescue. They may also be angered if Hezbollah fighters or Iranian advisers are killed in the attacks. The question then is if they see an advantage to escalating and/or widening the conflict. If they do, I do not trust Obama or Kerry to keep things from spiraling out of control. The human toll will jump in the region and a huge jump in oil prices will severely damage fragile economies around the world, maybe even create a new depression.

I'm pretty sure Russian advisers are present in Syria as well.

Has Russia made all of this moot today?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking in Moscow, floated the proposal that Syria place its international chemical stockpile under international supervision.

“We are calling on the Syrian authorities [to] not only agree on putting chemical weapons storages under international control, but also for its further destruction and then joining the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons,” Lavrov said, referring to the international body that implements the Chemical Weapons Convention, agreed to by 189 nations, not including Syria.

Syria and the UN are reported as favorable to the idea. There may be some practical issues with the proposal and it may turn out to be a ploy, but how does President Obama not respond favorably to such a proposal? I think how he responds will be a good sign of his intent. If he reacts favorably then things can stand down. If he reacts harshly or mockingly then I think that's a sign that he wants to strike no matter what. 

More: After thinking about the Russian proposal, it's a great out for Obama I think, if he can take yes for an answer. Russia is the only player with real leverage over the Syrian regime anyway, so let them go for it. Any success would be a win for the US too as long as those weapons are really destroyed, so let the Russians get their diplomatic win.

Then turn around and leverage that into a cease-fire, exile in Russia for Assad and company, and a chance to form a new government in Syria. Maybe it wouldn't provide justice for the victims, but it might prevent the next genocide.

Barack Obama: He's A Uniter!

How badly has Barack Obama screwed everything up regarding Syria? So bad that he has me siding with Alan Grayson of all people:

We have reached the point where the classified information system prevents even trusted members of Congress, who have security clearances, from learning essential facts, and then inhibits them from discussing and debating what they do know. And this extends to matters of war and peace, money and blood. The “security state” is drowning in its own phlegm.

My position is simple: if the administration wants me to vote for war, on this occasion or on any other, then I need to know all the facts. And I’m not the only one who feels that way.

Over the weekend CNN had a story about how they had obtained 13 videos that were part of the classified briefing that was given to Congress. These were amateur videos very similar to the ones that began appearing on the internet in the hours after the August 21 attack. That they were given some sort of secret classification and then later backdoored to CNN is ridiculous.  

Pretty much all of the actual evidence has been hidden away as "classified" by the Obama administration. Even from Congress. That has undermined President Obama's argument here and abroad. 

I understand the need to protect sources and methods, but when the restrictions on releasing information become so tight that they damage the very case President Obama is trying to make then it's time to rethink just how much of the evidence really has to remain secret.

I'll be surprised if that happens before Obama's speech tomorrow night. If we get any more details they will probably be leaked in dribs and drabs the next few days, but a comprehensive declassification won't happen.

NFL Week 1: Good, Bad, And Ugly

Good: My fantasy football team is leading 58-28 61-28 this afternoon with Anquan Boldin still going for me and Pierre Garcon and the Texans DST left to play tomorrow for my opponent. That's likely going to be a win for me, but in any case it's a good start to the FFL season. The only downside is I left 13 points from Reggie Bush on the bench, which would have been nine more points compared to the back I played, Steven Jackson.

Bad: Things looked to be a romp for the Vikings today when Adrian Peterson scampered 78 yards on the first play for the Minnesota offense. It was downhill from there. Sloppy play and penalties hurt both teams, but another inconsistent effort from QB Christian Ponder kept the Vikings from countering a great game by Reggie Bush. Not a good start for the Vikings.

Ugly: Ndamukong Suh does some good things off the field, but on it he's arguably the dirtiest player in the NFL. This afternoon he went after Minnesota center John Sullivan's knee on an interception return for Detroit. He was flagged for a 15-yard personal foul and it cost his team a touchdown. Here's the play(Sullivan is #65 in white, Suh is #90 in blue):

(click the image to enlarge)

Sullivan was well behind the play and very lucky that he didn't receive a career ending knee injury. If the NFL is really serious about eliminating those types of illegal blocks they will suspend Suh for at least three games. I mean really, the very first game of the season he goes after a knee, which almost seems like he's spitting in the eye of the NFL commissioner. 

Suh denied it was intentional after the game:

"I wasn't by any means going for his knees," Suh insisted. "He knows that."

Well, judge for yourself. It looks intentional to me and given Suh's history going back many years I say he's a lying, scumbag, son of a bitch. I hope I live long enough to see him denied a place in the Pro Football Hall of Fame because of all of those dirty stunts.

Puzzled

I'm going to have to rethink my theories on political correctness, because I had figured that when we finally got to the point where somebody actually writes this...

First it’s pretty detrimental to society when we reinforce the idea that poor or crime-heavy areas are places to be categorically avoided or shamed.

...the stupid would be so intense that space and time would fold in on themselves and the universe would mercifully wink out.

Obviously I was wrong.

I don't know about you, but I always tell my loved ones not to worry about crime-heavy areas. Go! Take a stroll there! Live a little! So you get beaten and robbed, at least you're not being detrimental. Right?

If a crowdsourced website about local crime is really viable is debatable, but people wanting to avoid high crime areas is not detrimental, it's common sense and self-preservation. 

Yes, the highest crime neighborhoods in Minneapolis are disproportionately poor and minority populated. Yes, I avoid them like the plague and I tell my loved ones to do the same. No, I don't care if somebody thinks that's wrong.

The writer at that first link goes on:

As if to assume that every person who lives in an area with comparatively high crime or poverty is a criminal, or that these areas are devoid of culture or positivity.

I lived in one of those neighborhoods back in the day and I don't have to assume, I know that most of the residents are not criminals. I know there is a culture there, the problem is that a significant part of it, not most by any means, is pretty screwed up. And I see positivity, as in I'm positive that if you spend enough time in those neighborhoods you'll be victimized one way or another.

To avoid those neighborhoods is not to say we should ignore them or the plight of their residents, but I'm kind of at a loss these days about what to do about them. That's because political correctness has choked off most of the common sense cures. Anybody can find themselves at some point living in one of those areas, but more often than not it's their own personal choices that keep them there. 

In 2011, only 36% of black students in the Minneapolis Public School system graduated on time. For Hispanics it was 34%. For American Indians it was 22%. A fair number of those young men and women will eventually earn a GED, but only after they have started their adult lives behind the eight ball.

Throw in drugs, teen mothers and absent fathers, a sub-culture that devalues women and education and glorifies the gang life, and there you have a significant chunk of the reasons for persistent poverty and dysfunction in those neighborhoods. But to talk about that or judge what is obviously bad behavior, let alone actually do something...well, get ready to be called a racist.

In the meantime, we keep churning out more kids who are doomed to live in these shithole neighborhoods and start adulthood as part of the underclass. And so the cycle goes on and on.

But hey, don't be detrimental.