My dad thinks that the resolution in Congress to authorize US military strikes against Syria will fail and that Obama will use that as an out. If things get worse in Syria in the following months he will blame Republicans in the runup to the 2014 elections. "Remember, everything is political with Obama," he says. He believes the threat of impeachment is what will keep Obama in check if the resolution fails to pass both chambers.
I think Obama still wants military strikes to go forward and the talk late last week of expanded target lists is a signal for that. If he can at least get the Senate to approve a resolution then he will go forward and blame Republicans in the House as obstructionists. Some in the House will clamor for impeachment, but that will only gain traction if the situation escalates and/or Americans start dying. Or a serious error on the part of the US military leads to mass casualties. If that happens all bets are off.
A very limited series of strikes that do not do much real damage will be mocked mercilessly in the region and around the world. More serious strikes that do some serious damage and sow confusion in the regime forces may prompt a renewed offensive from the rebels. The rebels will almost certainly plead with the US and its coalition of France to become their close air support just like Libya.
Even a limited strike carries the possibility of accidentally hitting chemical munitions and releasing whatever poison they hold. An NBC story highlights the five main facilities in the Syrian program, but the weapons themselves may be dispersed among 50 or more units in the Syrian military. I would also not put it past the Assad regime to stage a chemical release and then claim the US set it off. Any sort of mass casualty event, chemical or not, after we start shooting will be disastrous for the US.
Will Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah retaliate? We should be reminded that we are talking about acts of war against Syria, no matter how justified we feel they may be. Syria would have a legal justification to respond against military targets in turn. I think if the attacks are not too severe, Syria will take its lumps and go back to trying to win the civil war it's in. Iran and Hezbollah will accept things and go back to their priorities as well.
However, if the attacks do real damage to the regime Iran and Hezbollah will come to the rescue. They may also be angered if Hezbollah fighters or Iranian advisers are killed in the attacks. The question then is if they see an advantage to escalating and/or widening the conflict. If they do, I do not trust Obama or Kerry to keep things from spiraling out of control. The human toll will jump in the region and a huge jump in oil prices will severely damage fragile economies around the world, maybe even create a new depression.
I'm pretty sure Russian advisers are present in Syria as well.
Has Russia made all of this moot today?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking in Moscow, floated the proposal that Syria place its international chemical stockpile under international supervision.
“We are calling on the Syrian authorities [to] not only agree on putting chemical weapons storages under international control, but also for its further destruction and then joining the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons,” Lavrov said, referring to the international body that implements the Chemical Weapons Convention, agreed to by 189 nations, not including Syria.
Syria and the UN are reported as favorable to the idea. There may be some practical issues with the proposal and it may turn out to be a ploy, but how does President Obama not respond favorably to such a proposal? I think how he responds will be a good sign of his intent. If he reacts favorably then things can stand down. If he reacts harshly or mockingly then I think that's a sign that he wants to strike no matter what.
More: After thinking about the Russian proposal, it's a great out for Obama I think, if he can take yes for an answer. Russia is the only player with real leverage over the Syrian regime anyway, so let them go for it. Any success would be a win for the US too as long as those weapons are really destroyed, so let the Russians get their diplomatic win.
Then turn around and leverage that into a cease-fire, exile in Russia for Assad and company, and a chance to form a new government in Syria. Maybe it wouldn't provide justice for the victims, but it might prevent the next genocide.
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