More violence in Egypt today. All of the players are locked and loaded according to the various reports I've read this morning. Supporters of the coup are armed and manning their own checkpoints to augment the police and Egyptian Army ones as Muslim Brotherhood members and supporters have brought their own weapons to their continuing protests and marches. It's anyone's guess how much worse it will get today than the 17 reported dead so far, but the conditions are there to exceed the 600+ dead from Wednesday.
We rightly recoil from the violence in Egypt, but we also have to be realistic about the complicated factors driving it and the limited ability for the US to positively influence events right now. In fact, ill-advised statements and empty threats to the current regime are far more likely to do harm to our own interests while doing nothing for the Egyptian people. Given what is on their plate right now, it is no surprise that the Egyptian military scoffs at the frankly stupid reactions from Obama, Kerry, and Hagel the last couple of days.
As we watch the grim news from Egypt, here are some points to keep in mind:
- The coup was inevitable. President Mohamed Mursi's massive blunders in his first year brought Egypt to the brink of chaos. He had lost control of the bureaucracy, the police, and the army. The ability to just feed the people was in grave doubt. I don't think people understand how close Egypt was getting to total collapse. The coup has brought in massive aid from other Arab states, money that would never have been pledged with Mursi in office. That has forestalled economic collapse and starvation for now, but it is only temporary. Egypt must get on a track to long-term economic recovery and stability.
- The Muslim Brotherhood is not a moderate group. It never has been and it never will be. Just because they chose to not use violence in the past does not change the fact that their Islamist ideology is profoundly oppressive, intolerant, and ultimately anti-democratic in the Islamic state and caliphate that they envision. This is their motto and it is not just some empty slogan:
“Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.”
Read each of those five points and dwell on their deeper implications. They believe that anything outside of those statements, anything, must not just be opposed, but eventually forbidden everywhere. The fact that the Muslim Brotherhood has not directly sponsored terrorism and is realistic about their ability to achieve their goals at this point in time does not change their core philosophy. No matter what they say or how they hide it, they hate the Jews, they hate the Christians, and they hate the United States and everything we stand for. Anyone who believes otherwise is a fool.
- I think the Muslim Brotherhood wants this fight in hopes of forcing the army itself into the fray. The regime is using the civilian police forces against the pro-Mursi forces and wants to avoid dragging the army into direct attacks against civilians. The fear is that a significant number of troops will refuse to fire on their own people and the army will split apart. It's a realistic fear and the Brotherhood sees it as a way to beat the regime, despite the enormous damage it would cause to all of Egypt. I don't think the Muslim Brotherhood cares about that anymore. Their taste of power has driven them mad.
What Egypt needs right now is control and stability. In a perfect world we could all rightly get on our high horses about peace and love and democracy, but Egypt right now is far removed from a perfect world. It's terrible to see hundreds or even thousands killed and injured in these clashes, but if Egypt collapses then millions of lives may be lost in the resulting chaos.
That's the big picture in Egypt. Instead of spouting platitudes that are actually counterproductive and destroying what little influence we have left with the Egyptian military, the Obama administration should be urging restraint on both sides while working with the regime to stabilize the situation. As unpleasant as that regime may be, they are the only power that can keep Egypt from spinning completely out of control. In the meantime, the Muslim Brotherhood has to be told in no uncertain terms that they must concede or be crushed. There is no other alternative that doesn't leave millions of Egyptians dead.
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