Syrian rebels are claiming that regime forces used chemical weapons along with conventional ones in attacks on rebel held areas of the Damascus suburbs early this morning. The Syrian government emphatically denies the charge.
Reuters reported estimates from Syrian activists that more than 200 were killed on Wednesday after rockets hit an area in the Damascus suburbs. Syrian state television has denied any use of poison gas by the Assad government. Another group claimed nearly 500 were killed. The Syrian National Coalition put the death toll at more than 600, according to AFP.
There are a substantial number of videos and pictures that appear to show dozens and dozens of bodies without visible wounds. If the claims of a chemical attack are a hoax it is a pretty elaborate one. Assuming some number of Syrians have died from chemical weapons, the question now is who did it?
The Assad regime is the obvious primary suspect, but there are several things that don't seem to make much sense. The first is that they have been accused of this before by the rebels and a UN investigation team arrived just a few days ago to look into that. Would they really launch a chemical attack with the UN right there? That would be one hell of a slap to the face, one that even Russia and China might not sustain in the Security Council. That seems too crazy for even Assad and company.
Second, this is too big of an incident to be a test of Obama's "red line." This would be boldly stepping over it and daring the Obama administration to use US military power against his regime. Again, that seems too crazy.
Third, this is too little of an incident to be worth the risk. Using chemical weapons would have to be a measure of desperation or one where some large strategic gain would make it all worth it. I don't see either here.
It's also possible that the attack actually originated on the rebel side. There have been claims that al Qaeda related groups within the rebel camps have captured or made sarin gas. It's possible that this mornings attack somehow accidentally released a rebel supply of chemical weapons.
And we can't count out a deliberate release by some group within the rebels in order to frame the Assad regime and bring the US and other Western countries into the war. That concept is revolting to us, but al Qaeda is no stranger to murdering Muslims. They wouldn't hesitate to martyr hundreds if it means getting the rest of the world to whack Assad and his troops.
An AP report today seems to show there is no desire within the Obama administration or the US military to get directly involved in the conflict, but that may change if the scope of the incident becomes larger and public opinion shifts.
Anybody up for another war in the Middle East?
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