Fish Fear Me

NFL/FFL Playoffs

I'm doing three different fantasy playoff leagues this year. One is with the regular season fantasy football league I'm in. One is an old friend's league that I've played in the last few years. And one is an ESPN group that Rob started this year that is just for fun, for now. Each league has different scoring and lineup rules, which makes it interesting to keep track of things.

By far the most difficult is the regular FFL one, because you pick your lineup just once before the wild card round and that's it. You need to try to guess who will make it all the way to the Super Bowl and pick players accordingly, with perhaps some hedging with some players from other teams that might make it. With that in mind, here are my playoff predictions for the year:

Wild Card: I figured Houston would beat Cincinnati, Green Bay would beat Minnesota, Baltimore would beat Indianapolis, and Washington would beat Seattle. I missed that last one to go 3-1 for this round, and that one hurt because the only player on my roster from the Wild Card round was Alfred Morris of Washington. See ya, Alfred. 

In the divisional round, I'm going with Denver over Baltimore, San Francisco over Green Bay, New England over Houston, and while I figured Washington would be the one to beat the Falcons, now I'll go with Seattle.

For the conference championships, I'll go with Denver and San Francisco going to the Super Bowl and Denver winning it all.

The other leagues are easier to manage because you can reset your roster each week. The ESPN league has the last roster change for the conference championships, the other allows a new roster of the Super Bowl.

The tally so far? I don't know about the first league because the commisioner hasn't sent out all of the rosters. In the other two I am hanging tough in second place, within striking distance for most total points still.

On to week two.

What's The Matter With Kansas(City Chiefs)?

This news surprised me:

Andy Reid arrived in Kansas City on Friday, and the Chiefs are close to making an official announcement that he will become their next coach.

Reid and the Chiefs have reportedly agreed to a deal giving the longtime Eagles coach broad authority over football decisions. His deal came hours after the Chiefs announced they had parted with general manager Scott Pioli after four tumultuous seasons.

I watched Reid and the man he replaces, Romeo Crennel, fairly closely this past season because each man coached a star running back that I had on my FFL roster. With Reid and the Eagles it was LeSean McCoy. With Crennel and the Chiefs it was Jamaal Charles. 

It seems strange to say, if you know Andy Reid at all, but Crennel was the more baffling of the two coaches to me. He had this enormous talent in Jamaal Charles and he couldn't figure out how to use him effectively, as their 2-14 record this year shows. The man rushed for over 1500 yards this year and managed only five rushing TDs. That's about half of what his peers in the elite RB corps of the NFL did this year. In two losses to Oakland this year, Charles had only five and then nine carries. Can you imagine the Vikings using Adrian Peterson only five times in a game? Same with Charles, unthinkable.

Reid's problem seemed more general. The Eagles lately have always seemed disorganized and on the brink of self-destruction, but this year took the cake to the point where I kind of felt sorry for Eagles fans(well, Kate, so fan). Through it all, Andy Reid looked dazed, confused, tired. Yeah, yeah, more than usual. To be fair to Reid, the death of his son earlier last year was a terrible blow and I would not be surprised at all if that burden explains part of the issue.

Reid looked to me to be burned out. A man who needed some rest and relaxation, some time to rejuvenate. In many ways he is a good head coach, it's just that he's not always so quick with the wits in the 4th quarter. A fairly common defect among NFL coaches. Anyway, I expected him to take some time off. 

So why would the Chiefs, a team in disarray, hire a man who appears to be in a state of disarray himself to not only coach, but also oversee the new GM?

Perhaps my take on Reid is wrong, or maybe both teams feel the change in organizations and cities can be rejuvenating enough. I know from my own experience that going to a new job can be very refreshing after many years in the same place.

I have nothing against Reid or the Chiefs, so good luck to both(except when they play the Vikes). My gut tells me I'm not wrong though. 

And They're Off(Update 2)

Our Fantasy Football Bowl kicked off last night when the Falcons hosted Detroit. My opponent played Matt Ryan and Michael Turner while I had the more dud than stud lately, WR Roddy White. My hope was that the Ryan/Turner combo would limit out at 15 points and that White could maybe get a TD to partially offset that.

Well me of little faith. White went for two TDs and over 100 yards for 15 points while my opponent get 12 points from Ryan and none from Turner. Instead of down by 9 or more points, I have a slight lead. 

It should all be over by the time the 49ers and the Seahawks kick off tonight. Anybody who wants to should be able to follow the action here. At least I think you can since the league is public. If that doesn't work, let me know and I'll see if there's another way.

Update: The early games are done and we have a barn-burner going. I'm up 33-29, the difference with the ESPN score being the 3 points I get because the Pittsburgh defense did not allow an offense TD, and for which ESPN scoring doesn't have an option. My opponent Steve is relying on Chicago and Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall each having a big game. My hopes are pinned on Knowshon Moreno and kicker Lawrence Tynes. 

At this point it has been a fun afternoon of seeing the score seesaw back and forth. Both teams have already acquited themselves well, so there will be no blowout or shame of one team or the other not showing up. Note though, that the tiebreaker is bench points and my opponent has many more than I. That's serious "What if?" material, but it also means a tie goes his way. Something very much to keep in mind if this stays a close battle.

Update 2: Ohhh...and a close loss for me, 41-35. Knowshon and Lawrence couldn't keep up with Matt and Brandon. So it goes, but it was a good battle. I'll take 2nd given the way the season turned out, and now attention will turn to next week's all-star game and then the playoff round. Hahaha...and you thought maybe all this nonsense was finally over.

Let's Play "On The One Hand..."

So this is it. The Fantasy Football Bowl has arrived along with all of the power, money, and prestige that awaits the winner. 

Um...right.

I really do want to win, though, so I'm checking the roster and the free agent wire twice, looking at who has been naughty and who has been nice. I don't want to overthink things, but I do have some potential weak spots to review.

QB. Overall Andy Dalton has done a good job this year, but his production has been down the last few weeks. He's managed only 1 passing TD in each of the last 3 weeks and if he hadn't run for a couple of TDs in that period I probably would have dumped him by now. On the one hand, he faces a dinged up Steelers secondary that gave up 328 yards and 2 TDs to Tony Romo on Sunday. On the other hand, Sam Bradford of the Rams, fresh off from hitting the Vikes for 377 yards and 3 TDs, is available and faces the worst passing defense in the NFL with the Buccaneers. I'm tempted. I'm very tempted.

RB. Nothing to change here. Both Alfred Morris and Knowshon Moreno have played very well the last few weeks, are healthy, and appear to have good matchups this week.

WR/TE. While A.J. Green is a must-play, both Hakeem Nicks and Roddy White came up with a whole lot of nothing last week. In fact, both have only one good game in the last three. Backup Donnie Avery has done nothing since scoring two TDs three weeks ago. While White has a better matchup than Nicks this week, my real concern is Nicks' QB, Eli Manning. He's fresh off a brutal performance against Atlanta and now he faces a Ravens passing defense that has given up an average of only one TD to opposing QBs the last five games.

On the one hand, Nicks has breakout potential every week. On the other hand, two hot TEs are available: Aaron Hernandez of the Patriots and Dennis Pitta of the Ravens. Both have scored three TDs in the last two weeks. I'm tempted to pick up Hernandez because Rob Gronkowski could probably use one more week of none or light duty to recover from his broken arm, but Bill Belichick's talent for screwing me over should not be underestimated. Hmmm.

K. Placekicker Lawrence Tynes of the Giants missed his only shot at a field goal last week. I don't know how many years it has been since my kicker has been totally shut down in a game. Even if Eli Manning has a rough outing again, Tynes should get some points. The odds of him and the Giants both getting skunked twice in a row are pretty long. No change here.

D/ST. The Steelers Defense/Special Teams haven't done much for me this year. They've scored only one TD and have recorded zero shutouts. On the other hand, the Falcons, Redskins, and Saints have all scored more points this year, are available, and have statistically favorable matchups this coming week. If I wasn't in the Fantasy Bowl I wouldn't bother, but I think I might make a switch here. 

The D/ST move can wait. Since this is the last week, I can feel comfortable clearing my bench a bit and making the other moves now, with final decisions about the lineup waiting for game times on Saturday/Sunday. I'm pretty sure my opponent will not pick up Avery or Reggie Bush if I dump them. He's got plenty of other talent in those areas.

And by the way, I realize posts like this probably bore the heck out of everybody except Rob, but like a lot of subjects, just working through the issues here helps me a great deal.

Bowl Bound

Wonder of wonders, my luck held and my FFL team vanquished its #1 opponent this week by a score of 36-29. For all of my agonizing over who to play at running back, it was a disastrous Falcons-Giants game that nearly did me in. The 34-0 pasting of the Giants left me with no points from two wide receivers, Hakeem Nicks and Roddy White, and more importantly it meant a big nothing from my kicker, Lawrence Tynes of the Giants.

Not to matter in the end. Alfred Morris added 12 points and Knowshon Moreno 9 to the 15 that Dalton and Green combined for on Thursday. It certainly wasn't pretty, but it was enough.

The #2 seed has prevailed in his game, so I guess I'm going to have to pull off another upset if I'm going to claim my third FFL championship in this league. I'm not even going to worry about that for a couple of days though. I'm just going to enjoy that I'm guaranteed to be in the money and my team has exceeded expectations already. Woohoo!

Forward

My fantasy football team managed to squeak out a win this past weekend 40-33 over the #3 seed. It was closer than it looks as my opponent just missed 3 bonus points and any number of his players could have come up with another TD. I got lucky that it just wasn't his week.

I'm going to need that luck to hold as the win earns me the right to face the #1 seed this week. At 10-3, his team deserves the #1 spot. I think my team is better than its 6-7 record, after all it did have the second most points scored against it, but it isn't that good. 

There's always hope, I guess. And luck. Most of my luck has been bad this year, last week excepted, so maybe I'm due.

I can practically hear the FFL gods laughing.

And The Crowd Goes Wild

I managed to sneak into the 2012 FFL Fantasy Bowl playoffs as the 6th and final seed despite losing last week and a  6-7 record.  Since I made it in , I decided today to cut loose some dead wood and see if I can bring in some fresh blood to reinvigorate my roster for the final three games.

Out: Andre Roberts, Ari WR. Ryan Mathews, SD RB. First round pick LeSean McCoy, PHL RB.

In: Donnie Avery, IND WR. DeMarco Murray, DAL RB. Knowshon Moreno, DEN RB.

I started Moreno tonight and he rewarded me with a TD plus 3 pts for over 100 yards rushing for 9 pts total. Considering I got 6 pts total from both running backs last week, I'm already ahead this week. I have a bit of a dilemma on which back to use for the last RB spot in this week's lineup, but there are two more days to figure that out.

Long way to go yet, coach, but good start.

One More

Week 12 of the NFL season is done for my FFL team and finds it at 6-6. That's good enough for one more win to put me in the upper division playoffs. I'm up against one of the best teams next week though, so that's going to be a tough job. Even if I don't win there's a good chance for me to still get in, but it will depend on who wins and what tie breakers end up clearing the logjam for the final spots.

Right now there are three teams at 6-6 and two at 5-7. I own the head-to-head tiebreaker over both of those 5-7 teams, but the other 6-6 teams own me in that category instead. If we get into a situation where head-to-head can't resolve it then we go to total points, and depending on what happens tonight and next week I could get edged out there. 

I wonder if David Axelrod is available for a quick gig.

Victory!

My FFL opponent's last chance to beat me earned him a big fat zero last night and the Dallas Cowboys were utterly humiliated by the Bears. Monday Night Football doesn't get much better than that.

Unless there are pictures of Jerry Jones crying. Are there pictures of Jerry Jones crying?

The Bears win leaves them tied with the Vikings for the lead in the NFC North. Green Bay is one game back and Detroit is the surprising laggard at 1-3. The latter was supposed to be occupied by the Vikings at this point.

The good start is welcome to Vikings fans, of course, but I think ESPN's Kevin Seifert expresses the right amount of skepticism here:

The Vikings are the darlings of the NFL after a wholly unexpected 3-1 start, including two victories against 2011 playoff teams. But with that success brings added scrutiny, and it's fair to question whether the Vikings can sustain on the low-octane offensive model displayed at various points during this start. Let's be clear on how rare it is to win a game without an offensive touchdown, as the Vikings did Sunday.

Last year the team was a mess from top to bottom, for all sorts of reasons. This year's team is a vast improvement over that one and shows solid improvement in just about every area. That doesn't make them great though, and I suspect some tough losses are ahead if the offense doesn't step it up a notch.

Still, an impressive win against the 49ers and going into Detroit and coming away with the victory are nothing to sneeze at. If nothing else, they aren't the patsies that pretty much everybody figured them to be. That's a big improvement over last year by itself.

Happy Monday

It was an absolutely gorgeous weekend here in the Twin Cities with highs in the 70s and hardly a cloud in the sky. We really do need some rain, lots of it, but holy cow the weather was nice this weekend.

Went into yesterday 0-3 in FFL. The weekend before I managed some decent points, but luck once again had me up against the highest scoring team in the league and not any one of the five other teams I could have beaten. Going into tonight I am the highest scoring team at 56 points, but my opponent is only 12 points behind and has Michael Bush of the Bears against Dallas. The tie-breaker, bench points, would go to the other guy, so two TDs for Bush and I'm sunk.

L-O-L-A, Lola: Androgynous models and a South Korean boy band that takes the pretty in pretty boys to a whole new level. I'm guessing it is only a matter of time before both phenomena arrive in America, so I'm mostly giving you a heads up. I have to note the Wikipedia page for the band too. They debuted in January 2012 and by July 2012 were making a comeback? I know life is faster in the digital age, but that's ridiculous. Or an English as second language problem. Yeah, I'll go with that last one.

There are some questions that simply should not be asked unless one is truly prepared for the truth. A case in point comes via Cassy Fiano, a writer I normally like. In the middle of another of those tedious essays these days that stereotype men and exaggerate our faults, she asks, "In all seriousness, though, what is it about men and taking forever in the bathroom?"(as in guys spending an hour on the john)

Oy. First of all, I've never known any guy who would spend anywhere close to an hour on the pot. Fifteen or twenty minutes tops. Ladies, if your man is doing more than that there's something wrong, and it's not physical. Second...no, let's leave second alone. Certain realities should be obvious enough.

Minneapolis had what is believed to be the worst incidence of workplace violence in Minnesota history on Thursday. Five men were killed and two more seriously wounded by a coworker who had just been fired. It's being said that the shooter had been suffering from mental illness for some time, but what role that exactly played is still being investigated.

Mental illness is a very common thread in mass shootings. I'm quite sure that there is no complete solution to the problem, but I wish our leaders would focus their attention on that aspect and set aside the polarizing all or nothing positions for a change. Perhaps some of these shootings could be prevented if we had a better way to intervene when people are obviously mentally ill.

To finish on a happy note, the Vikings improved to 3-1 yesterday with a win on the road in Detroit. This time it was mostly special teams and defense carrying the load, with the offense moving the ball when needed and keeping the time of possession essentially even. They also took care of the ball, an important point my friend Rob always makes, ceding no fumbles or interceptions to the Lions.  

Oh, and a couple of points on the return of the "real" NFL on-field officials. As noted by one local ref during the lockout, would fans have been happier if there were no replacement refs, and therefore no games at all? Will the real refs be judged just as harshly as the replacement refs in the end? I saw plenty of bad or questionable calls during both the Vikings-Lions game and the Packers-Saints game yesterday. My take is that officiating at that level is a very tough and while there were a handful of spectacular failures, most of the replacement officials did a pretty good job. I also think the NFL did a lousy job of providing real time assistance to the replacement crews. Fox Sports has a former official at the ready to talk about controversial plays, the league could have done something along those lines too.