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Just The Beginning

I guess the House vote on health care reform, such as it is, will take place in an hour or so. It sounds like Democrats have corralled enough votes, but it won't be certain until the deed is done. I'm not at all hopeful that it can be stopped today. It's not the end of the fight though:

What they don’t realize is that today’s vote isn’t the end, but just a new beginning in the debate over health care. Buckle up, because if they manage to cobble together enough votes to pass the Senate Health Bill today, we’re set for weeks and perhaps months of a constitutional and political crisis the likes of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes.

In a matter of hours after House passage of the Senate Bill, the state of Virginia will file suit in federal court. The Commonwealth will be joined in the suit by a dozen other states. I expect a flood of additional lawsuits. The suits will be based on the provision that requires every American to purchase health insurance. (This is how the Dems ‘crack down’ on the insurance industry; by requiring everyone to buy its product?) Because this is an individual mandate, virtually every American has standing to file suit against this provision. Also, it is in direct conflict with state law in at least two states, Idaho and Virginia.

Yep. If you thought Iraq was divisive, just watch the next months until November. Eight months is a long time and it's possible that protests will peter out, but I strongly doubt that right now. And the language is going to get a great deal harsher. The smears yesterday against the Tea Party protesters for the actions of a few, if the incidents really occurred at all, has only hardened the resolve to inflict a political catastrophe on Democrats this fall.

I think the current Senate bill will be the final law for this year. They are not going to get the House changes through the Senate and House members who are counting on that are being played for fools. President Obama and the Senate will just shrug and say, "oh well."

It will be interesting what the stock market does tomorrow. Will investors be happy that there's finally some resolution or will they pull back? My guess is pull back, but I hope I'm wrong. I think that a severe pull back will signal that more rounds of layoffs are coming or, at best, stagnated employment figures through this year.

That's That

Joe Nathan tested his arm this morning and the result was clear:

Twins closer Joe Nathan said today that he will undergo Tommy John ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow with an eye toward returning for Opening Day in 2011.

Nathan played catch with pitching coach Rick Anderson this morning. It was Nathan's first throwing session since he suffered a significant tear of his ulnar collateral ligament on March 6.

"Didn’t go like we hoped," Nathan said. "We knew it was a long shot, but what this did do is clear my head. Definitely was no gray area. Definitely was on the black side, where it didn’t go as well as we like, and we know now we’re going to have to go in and get some surgery done, get this thing fixed up."

Not unexpected, but still a bummer. I hope the surgery and recovery goes well for you, Joe.

What the Twins will do is anyone's guess. It looks like trade possibilities are pretty thin and at this point there is no obvious replacement in camp. My guess is that the Twins will not have a single designated closer for a good chunk of the season. Who takes the mound in the ninth will be determined by the lineup they're up against and who is fresh. If we're lucky, someone will step up and into the role by the All-Star break.

Happy Vernal Equinox

Spring officially arrives today at 12:32 PM CDT.

Seven Years On

Tonight marks the seventh anniversary of the beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom. It makes me a little sad that it seems to be passing with very little attention, but given the poisoned narrative and the hardened positions of so many people perhaps that's for the best right now. It will be future historians and the children and grandchildren of those who served who will spark the reevaluation of the last seven years.

There was some minor controversy when it was announced that Operation Iraqi Freedom would end later this year and that US military efforts in Iraq would continue under the name of Operation New Dawn. I think that's fitting. The war is over, and if there is one thing that supporters and detractors alike can agree on it's good riddance.

That's not to say there is no more work to do or no mission for the US. The Iraqi military will not be fully capable of defending from external threats for perhaps as long as a decade. We will continue to support, train, and mentor the Iraqi military for a long time to come or throw away a huge strategic opportunity, and the latter would be something that would come back to haunt us down the road. I'm guessing that wiser heads will prevail in Iraq and the US and there will be some tweaking of the Status of Forces Agreement after the November US elections, but it's not a sure thing.

Has it been worth it? For the loved ones of the 4,385 US military who have died and the thousands of wounded, probably not. The same for the people of Iraq who saw up to 100,000 killed over the last seven years. But if we are going to take the human costs of the war into account, then we also need to look at the toll that would have continued under Saddam Hussein if he had been left in place versus the opportunity that Iraqis have today. And the evil he would have exported. And where he would be today if, as likely, the sanctions had collapsed and he was free to revive his weapons programs. 

All of that is very debatable, but it shouldn't be ignored. Too many have bled and died to give Iraqis a chance at a good life. Their sacrifice should not be honored with silence today just because we can't honestly face up to the good and bad truths.  And yet, there it goes.

Flood Week

Spring fever takes a break for a few days here as the temps get back to normal, which is about 20 degrees cooler than what we were treated to the last few days. Oh well, it will warm back up in a few days. And the grill has been fired up for the first time this year.

Across the Upper Midwest, towns and cities are bracing for flood crests over the next week. The general feeling is that things should be okay so long as there are no major rains and no catastrophic levee failures out along the Red River Valley. St. Paul is looking at a top 10 flood crest, but there doesn't seem to be too much concern. The flood forecasts keep nudging upward though, so it's just cautious optimism at this point. To our Iowa friends and neighbors: Look out below.

Tempting Murphy's Law

When it comes to this sort of thing, only the foolish, arrogant, or unprincipled say "never":

Attorney General Eric Holder told a congressional panel Tuesday that the question of reading Osama bin Laden his Miranda rights is absurd — because he won’t be brought in alive.

“Let’s deal with reality,” Holder said. “You’re talking about a hypothetical that will never occur. The reality is that we will be reading Miranda rights to the corpse of Osama bin Laden. He will never appear in an American courtroom. That’s the reality. ... He will be killed by us, or he will be killed by his own people so he’s not captured by us. We know that.”

I agree that the odds are strongly in favor of bin Laden not being taken alive, but to not even consider the possibility? God, or luck, save us.

Happy St. Patrick's Day

Don't do anything I wouldn't do.

Which gives you, you know, a great deal of latitude.

There's Something Happening Ear

I know they still make middle school teachers like they used to, because little sis just became one a couple of years ago. Obviously though, a few odd ones slip through the cracks:

A teacher at Northfield Middle School is accused of biting off a piece of a stranger's ear while in a St. Paul cafe early Sunday and then picking the evidence up off the floor and presumably eating it.

Susan M. Mwarabu, 30, of Rochester, was charged Monday with third-degree felony assault and later released from the Ramsey County jail.

Biting a chunk of ear off is not unprecedented, but even Mike Tyson didn't pick it up and eat it. I'm having a bit of trouble, er, swallowing that part of the story. Though it could explain this:

She teaches sixth-grade science and social studies and also "has been very effective" working with students who are academically at risk, Richardson said.

Well, yeah. I imagine all she had to do was to say she would have them over for dinner.

Kidding aside, it sounds like the woman and her friends were drunk. That's no excuse of course, and it doesn't explain the cannibal act. I've seen some pretty drunk and stupid behavior over the years, but nothing like that, if it's true. If it is, she might as well quit now, because she won't be teaching in this state anytime soon.

She might make an effective assistant principal though.

Peter Graves, RIP

I was sorry to hear this news:

Peter Graves, the Minneapolis-born actor who dared to take on impossible missions, died Sunday, four days short of his 84th birthday.

Graves, who was celebrating his 60th year in show business and a recent induction into the Hollywood Walk of Fame, appeared to have had a heart attack outside his Pacific Palisades, Calif., home shortly after brunch, according to the Associated Press.

My condolences to his family and friends. By all accounts he was a good man.

I always felt a stronger attachment to Peter Graves and older brother James Arness than some other actors, since they too grew up in south Minneapolis. I remember watching both of them on TV as a kid and they seemed to epitomize the roles they played during that time in the late sixties. The Jim Phelps character seemed real though, since the cold war and the Iron Curtain were looming over us at the time. He played the cool and professional secret agent role perfectly and as a kid that role was something of a comfort, because it meant guys like Jim Phelps were on our side. Not that silly for a kid at that time.

That image was important a decade or so later when he appeared in Airplane! and spoke such immortal lines as:

Joey, do you like movies about gladiators?"

...I damn near fell out of my seat in shock. Not that it wasn't funny, the whole bit was hilarious, but because that was Peter Graves doing that schtick! Without his, and the other "serious" actors' reputations, I don't think that movie would have worked nearly as well.

Graves hesitated before accepting the part:

On the one hand, he said, he considered the role a challenge, "but it also scared me."

"I thought I could lose a whole long acting career," he recalled.

Now, Airplane! is not exactly one of those movies that one goes to for life lessons, of course, but there was one there in Graves(and the others) agreeing to be in it. It was kind of a risk. Would anyone take him seriously again?

Well, he pulled it off and people did still take him seriously. I, for one, appreciated his acting ability in a whole new way. The little lessons for me at that stage was that you shouldn't pigeon-hole people, because they may just surprise you, and don't be afraid to take a risk and have some fun once in a while.

RIP, Peter.