Fish Fear Me

Hail of a thing

Wow. I've never seen anything like the amount of hail that fell on my neighborhood late this afternoon. I'm sure it didn't set any meteorological records or anything, but there were spots in my yard that had a solid 2" of hail when I stepped outside after the storm. Below the eaves of my house, it piled up to twice that much in some areas. It was mostly 1/2" to 1" in size and I think I avoided any serious damage, but the entire neighborhood is littered with leaves and branches that were broken off of trees. Some storm drains were clogged with leaves and hail and that led to a bit of minor street flooding, but nothing serious except to owners of really low-slung cars.

I haven't gotten around to getting a chip reader for my new cell phone so pics will have to wait until tomorrow, but here's a good pic that I glommed off of KARE11's photo gallery tonight:

(Photo credit: Steven Christenson)

I've lived in my house for almost 18 years and all of the hail I have seen in that time combined doesn't come even close to what landed today. It probably lasted for only 5 minutes, but it seemed much longer with all of the clatter and my anxiety about how much of a beating the vehicles were taking. It just went on and on. The trucks seem ok though, and tomorrow I'll take a look at the house roof and see how that fared. It's probably just fine since it was more of a volume thing as opposed to truly big hail.

As I post this, it's been five hours since the hail fell and I just let Sammy outside. There's still a good inch of hail on my patio.

Fantasy Based Foreign Policy

I feel a little icky about this, but for a larger purpose I am forced to defend Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens from a mind-numbingly shallow and juvenile attack by Cliff Schecter. Schecter links to and quotes from an apparent appearance by Stevens on Dan Fagan's radio show. Here's the quote from Stevens according to Schecter:

We expect Al Qaeda to come out some time today with a new manifesto where they ought to be using weapons of mass destruction against the United States. That means that they're realizing they can't win in Iraq. I think they're going to change their way of doing business. And I think we have to be on the alert. These people are all over the world. Al Qaeda's not just in Iraq. They're in Iran. They're in the Philippines. Sen Inouye and I went down to [indistinguishable]. They're over in Indonesia. They're all over.

Schecter strains his brain and summons up his mighty snark:

Ok Ted. Can we got over this one more time. There are Sunnis (Al Qaeda) and Shiites (Iran). They are at war in Iraq, as well as much of the rest of the Middle East and Far East. Think Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. I know it probably helps you to imagine Christianity and white people.

Ok, Cliffy. Can we go over this one more time? There are Sunnis(Hamas) and there are Shiites(Iran):

Hamas-Iran links full of contradictions, but also mutual interest

When Iraq hung Saddam Hussein, furious Sunni Muslims in the militant group Hamas held mourning ceremonies. That did not sit well with Shiite Muslim Iran, one of Hamas' key backers but also a strong Saddam foe.

Yet the dispute over Saddam's execution did not break the Hamas-Iran alliance, either.

Instead the two — bound by common strategic interests — have solidified their relationship in the last year, creating a growing worry for both some Arab countries and for Israel.

Huh...that doesn't sound like they are at war there. What could explain this conundrum?

At their core, Iran and Hamas are far apart ideologically: Iran espouses a fundamentalist Shiite version of Islam, while Hamas adheres to an equally strict rival Sunni version.

But when it comes to Hamas, Iran's interests are based primarily on its rivalry with Washington and with its Arab allies for influence in the region.

"Political Islam is very pragmatic," said Beirut-based Palestinian analyst Souheil Natour. "They are playing realpolitick."

I'm pretty sure this is where the nutroots in general takes at least a figurative bong hit. While they hold it in they croak out "No way, dude...that would be totally like that 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' thing, and that's just like, crazy man".

While it is true that Sunni and Shiite are at war in some places in the Middle East and the rest of the world, where convenient they are more than happy to cooperate against a common enemy. That also happens not just in the Middle East, but also around the world. When it is at least temporarily mutually advantageous, Persian will work with Arab, Shiite with Sunni, Alawite with Shiite, and on and on. Nationalist, ethnic, ideological, tribal, and sectarian loyalties and interests all combine in a complex mix.

It's not just a Middle East tendency, bitter enemies have cooperated at times throughout history. Stalin and Hitler and China and Vietnam are just two relatively recent examples. To deny this type of cooperation is essentially child-like and dangerous.

When it comes to al Qaeda and Iran, things do become much murkier compared to the open Hamas/Iran relationship. I'll refer you to this post from 2006 that's at The Long War Journal that notes senior al Qaeda members who are believed to be in Iran and some of the mutual cooperation that is believed to have occurred in Somalia and elsewhere. Read the whole thing. If one struggles really hard I suppose one can continue to hold on to some sort of fantasy about Sunni/Shiite non-cooperation against Israel and the United States, but retaining any sort of credibility is impossible.

Folks, Schecter and the mindless zombies in his comments section are a representative sample of Senator Obama's base. Either Obama is going to do a 180 if he's elected and disappoint this base or he's going to buy into this dangerous nonsense. I haven't figured out which is more likely, but so far I'm not encouraged.

More: Cool...Bob Cesca bepeawits himself. Can Bob Geiger be far behind?

Obama reveals his sixth sense

Barack Obama channeled Haley Joe Osment yesterday in what was an otherwise reasonably good Memorial Day speech:

On this Memorial Day, as our nation honors its unbroken line of fallen heroes -- and I see many of them in the audience here today -- our sense of patriotism is particularly strong.

It would have been nice if he had also skipped politics for the day, but it's not like he was the only one who didn't. McCain could have picked a better day to give an interview to AP. I will say it's funny how people who are so willing to jump on Bush about his verbal gaffes never seem to muster more than averted eyes at Sen. Obama's. It's almost like they're hypocrites or something.

Speaking of dead people: The Cuban government publication Granma has apparently held a séance so Fidel Castro can weigh in on Barack Obama:

IT would be dishonest of me to remain silent after hearing the speech Obama delivered on the afternoon of May 23 at the Cuban American National Foundation created by Ronald Reagan. I listened to his speech, as I did McCain’s and Bush’s. I feel no resentment towards him, for he is not responsible for the crimes perpetrated against Cuba and humanity. Were I to defend him, I would do his adversaries an enormous favor. I have therefore no reservations about criticizing him and about expressing my points of view on his words frankly.

I love that "dishonest of me to remain silent" bit. Truly hilarious if you think about it.

Storm Season Arrives

Temperatures finally hit above 80 for the first time this year and also helped spawn the first severe storms of spring in the Twin Cities. They plowed across the far northern suburbs and one child is confirmed dead from what was probably a tornado in the town of Hugo, MN. About seven or eight other people, including the dead child's sibling and parents, were injured and from the destruction visible in the pictures at WCCO it seems kind of a miracle that more weren't killed or injured. At least two dozen homes were destroyed, some right down to the foundation, and dozens of others were damaged. Somewhere between 300 and 400 homes are evacuated for now as they deal with downed power lines and leaking gas pipes.

Our friends to the south in Iowa were hit even harder with seven dead and fifty injured from a tornado there. Like everything else, the severe storm season has arrived about two weeks late this year, but it's here now. With a vengeance.

On a side note, I kind of had only one ear tuned to the Twin Cities' storms while they were developing because all the action was at least twenty miles north of my place. Then one of the local meteorologists said that the clouds for one thunderstorm were topping over 60,000 feet. That's a big ass thunderstorm and if I remember correctly that means some pretty powerful updrafts. It doesn't necessarily mean big hail or a tornado, but it's something to watch out for. That sharpened my attention at least.

And Now For Some Things Completely Different

When the Vikings were working on a deal to trade WR Troy Williamson earlier this year, some of the comments on the Strib articles that were directed at Williamson were pretty harsh. One commenter said that if the Vikes could get a cheeseburger for Williamson they should take the deal and run. Another said they should be happy if they could get a bag of footballs(for the record, the Vikes ended up with a sixth round draft pick for him). This morning comes news of a real life player for equipment trade in minor league baseball:

Minor leaguer traded for 10 baseball bats

During three years in the low minors, John Odom never really made a name for himself.

That sure changed this week—he’s the guy who was traded for a bunch of bats.

“I don’t really care,” he said Friday. “It’ll make a better story if I make it to the big leagues.”

For now, Odom is headed to the Laredo Broncos of the United League. They got him Tuesday from the Calgary Vipers of the Golden Baseball League for a most unlikely price: 10 Prairie Sticks Maple Bats, double-dipped black, 34-inch, C243 style.

It sounds like the young man has a good perspective about it and you have to keep in mind that some of these minor league franchises operate on shoestring budgets. Still, I'd be a bit more chagrined than that player is, but maybe that's just me.

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I've been seeing generally positive reviews of the new Indiana Jones movie, including Rob's positive take on it here:

Some critics are obsessed with "freshness" and I was a little worried about what I might read from them beforehand. This was a movie where I was hoping to get exactly what I expected: "Goofy action". My worries were unfounded.

Good, that's what I want too. I'll probably wait a bit until the crowds die out and then catch a matinee or something. Anyway, the villains in this one are apparently 1950s era Soviet agents and it looks like some of the remaining communist party members in Russia are taking offense at the fictional movie:

Indiana Jones makes Russian communists see red

Russian Communist Party members condemned the new "Indiana Jones" film on Friday as crude, anti-Soviet propaganda that distorts history and called for it to be banned from Russian screens.

"Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" stars Harrison Ford as an archeologist in 1957 competing with an evil KGB agent, played by Cate Blanchett, to find a skull endowed with mystic powers.

"What galls is how together with America we defeated Hitler, and how we sympathized when Bin Laden hit them. But they go ahead and scare kids with Communists. These people have no shame," said Viktor Perov, a Communist Party member in Russia's second city of St. Petersburg.

Oh cry me a river. I will always be grateful that I wasn't born into the hideous totalitarianism that schmuck feels the need to defend. On the humorous side, their little temper tantrum brings back an oldie but a goodie though:

"Harrison Ford and Cate Blanchett (are) second-rate actors, serving as the running dogs of the CIA. We need to deprive these people of the right of entering the country," said another party member, Andrei Gindos.

Hey Andrei, you're out of practice. That's supposed to be "imperialist running dogs" you idiot. But thanks for the laugh.

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From an MNF-Iraq press release from yesterday:

BAGHDAD – Iraqi Army Soldiers discovered a weapons cache hidden in a schoolhouse in Sadr City May 23.

At approximately 8 a.m., IA Soldiers from the 34th Brigade, 9 IA Division, discovered a weapons cache consisting of a remote-controlled improvised explosive device, six 155 mm artillery rounds, an artillery warhead, an anti-tank mine, four hand grenades, an unknown grenade, two PKC light machine guns, 450 PKC rounds, a 92 mm charge, a Katusha rocket launcher, two bottles of chlorine poison, eight Tamoud brand radios and five radio chargers.

The first charming thing to note is that Sadr's thugs used a schoolhouse as an arsenal. It doesn't say if the school was open or not, but neither situation speaks well for Sadr. Either they were denying the children their local school, or they were using students as human shields and forcing them to go to school right on top of live ammunition. Nice. I fully expect Human Right Watch to condemn this immediately....hahaha, sorry about that.

The second thing to note is that there is this meme about the government not forcing the Mahdi Army to disarm. It looks to me that the real situation is that the government of Iraq agreed to not force them to disband, but they are forcing them to disarm in the sense that they are confiscating everything they find beyond the single AK-47 or comparable that each household is allowed by law. 

Finally, what's up with the "two bottles of chlorine poison"? Probably for their local water treatment plant, right? Right?

There is this myth that the Mahdi Army and Sadr's political organization is dedicated to providing services to the people that the government can't or will not. That was true in some ways until they morphed into greedy thugs who more preyed on the people in the areas they controlled than assisted them. They are being taken out not because they are political opponents of Prime Minister Maliki(which they are), but because they are standing in the way of real progress in Sadr City. They know that if the government is allowed to furnish the services that those people desperately want and need, a major reason for their existence goes away, as does a major source of their funding in the form of controlling food, fuel, and extorting protection money. They are also being taken out because they committed war crimes by indiscriminately firing rockets and mortars that killed almost 300 civilians in the past two months. Not that Sadr's apologists give a damn about that, but it enraged Maliki and other Iraqi leaders.

I wonder if they will actually dare to sabotage the coming infrastructure improvements. My bet is that some local Mahdi Army commanders will try and that Sadr will be forced to publicly disown them. It won't save him and his political stock will continue to decline.

Turning Point in Iraq?

Even the MSM is starting to actually report on positive signs in Iraq. Last week the New York Times finally managed to get a reporter down to Basra and he filed a report on the returning normality there as opposed to the usual drivel that the operation was a defeat for the Iraqi Government. Yesterday I caught this report from Time's Mark Kukis, who has spent the previous two months trumpeting the power of Sadr and his Mahdi Army:

Has Maliki Conquered Sadr City?

The arrangement effectively gives Iraqi security forces their first real presence in Sadr City since the fall of Saddam Hussein and marks a victory in Maliki's ongoing efforts to face down the militias and insurgents opposed to his government. Iraqi forces plan to remain in Sadr City and have begun setting up a series of checkpoints across the district, much as they have in other areas of Baghdad. For his part, Sadr seems to have gained little in the near term with the pact beyond sparing Sadr City and his militia forces a long and destructive battle. But Mahdi Army fighters have retained much of their muscle nonetheless, since Sadr insisted that his militia still be allowed to hold light weapons such as Kalashnikovs. And already there are signs suggesting that the Mahdi Army is moving at least some of its heavy weapons to other locations in Baghdad for use if the agreement breaks down.

For the record on that bit about keeping AK-47s; All Iraqi households are allowed to keep one such weapon. The Coalition and ISF are seizing weapons caches left and right including heavy weapons in Sadr City. It's impossible to say if some of those weapons have been moved to other areas, but I think it is becoming increasingly difficult to move them and keep them secure.

Here's a report from ABC's Jonathon Karl today:

Turning Point: The Good News About Iraq
Iraqi Forces Are Leading Operations in Three Iraqi Cities With Little U.S. Support

As Gen. David Petraeus and Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee for confirmation hearings today, things are looking up in Iraq.

Despite the recent gun battles and civilian casualties we have seen in Sadr City, there are some real signs of progress. Military officials are more optimistic now than they have been at any time since the purple-finger elections of January 2005. Consider:

-- Iraqi forces are now leading operations in Basra, Mosul and Sadr City. In each case, the Iraqis have made progress with relatively little American support. This is unprecedented: three major Iraqi-led operations in three different parts of the country.

-- Last week, the overall level of attacks in Iraq was at the lowest point since April 2004.

-- So far in May, the U.S. death rate is the lowest of the war. This is a morbid statistic that can change with a single large attack, but so far 14 Americans have been killed this month, a death rate of .76 per day, by far the lowest of the war. Five of those deaths came on May 1; another two were non-hostile. Over the last two weeks, a total of six Americans have been killed in hostile action.

-- Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's political position has never been stronger. Just two months ago, senior Iraqi officials were openly talking about replacing Maliki. There is now no such talk. Maliki currently has the backing of Sunnis, Kurds and moderate Shiites.

There's more. Read the whole thing.

Is this the turning point in Iraq? I'd love to say yes, but there are a lot people still heavily invested in seeing the current government of Iraq defeated. What is very clear is that the ISF is greatly improved over what it was when they failed to show up for the first Baghdad security operation in 2006. Though fighting will continue, the ISF may well have reached the tipping point towards having a monopoly on violence the same way as government here in the US. They are not there yet, but when the Sadr City and Mosul operations are completed there will be no serious group left to challenge them.

This is not a rosy, all things are great situation. Yet dramatic and positive changes have happened over the last two months and it is the culmination of years of tough slogging by many people. Work that has largely been ignored or derided as failure because it wasn't happening fast enough. It will take time to make these gains solid and the situation remains volatile. But if these gains solidify over the next two months then Iraq will be a very different picture than what has been painted over the last few years and it will be so different that even the MSM won't be able to ignore it. Iraq remains a wild card for November and do not be surprised if it turns around and bites Obama and the nutroots right in the ass.

Well Now I'm Just Getting Angry

Damn straight:

Gardy pretty much summed up stuff after the game when he said that Sunday’s game was “embarrassing for the organization, and for our fans.”

It has been a long time since I have been so embarrassed for the Twins and for myself for being one of their fans. Here's La Velle Neal's take on Sunday's debacle:

So this is what it looks like when a team falls apart.

"I think we saw -- I hope that would be -- the ugliest game of the year," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said.

His assessment came moments after the Twins' 6-2 loss to the beatable Colorado Rockies on Sunday -- a 2 hour, 59 minute disaster during which the Twins did everything but play the game right. The Twins allowed Rockies lefthander Jeff Francis to win his first game in nine starts, then flew back to the Twin Cities having lost five of six games.

They also committed three errors and went 1-12 with runners in scoring position. The last two series have been disasters for the Twins after a thrilling 3-1 series win over Boston. The current four game set with Texas is shaping up to be more of the same. The Twins committed two more errors and blew a 5-2 lead in the 7th inning before managing to scrape out a win Monday in the 12th inning:

A seventh-inning error by Twins pitcher Boof Bonser led to all kinds of chaos Monday night at the Metrodome.

First, came the comeback by the Texas Rangers. Then, came the game-tying, ninth-inning single by Joe Mauer.

The game went to extra innings, where things really got strange before Howie Clark -- playing his second game since being recalled from the minor leagues -- gave the Twins a 7-6 victory in the 12th inning with an RBI liner over the head of Rangers center fielder Josh Hamilton.

You have to expect that kind of thing once in a while, but it seems like it's becoming the norm for this team. They seem to have exactly the same attitude they had last year at this point and that ended with a 79-83 record. I like Ron Gardenhire and most of the Twins coaching staff, but they need to give those guys a swift kick in the ass and/or start firing some of the worst offending players. It's gotten awful in the last week, but these lazy and little league traits have been around since the season opening series against the Angels and they were around all of last year. I can handle the Twins being overmatched in the major league talent pool by teams like the Yankees or Red Sox as long as they at least field a team that plays decent fundamental baseball. This kind of play just sucks though.

To his credit, at least Gardenhire gets it:

"We're not catching the ball like I want to see us catch the balls," Gardenhire said. "I can't live with too many mistakes. I just can't live with that. It's not fun baseball.

"Get the outs you're supposed to get. That's the way we've always played here. And, give up defense for offense -- well, I've watched it now for 42, 43 games, and I'm not very happy with it. I don't like it."

Me either. I'll pay $25 or $30 a seat and parking and concessions to see a decently played game a few times a year, but if I want to see something like the baseball equivalent of the Washington Generals I'll go down to the local little league park with a six-pack of pop and watch kids who are at least trying to live up to their potential. It's a lot cheaper and hell of a lot more fun. And if there are any clowns around they're a lot less scary.

Friday Notes

The Obamafoon: Wow. The furious reaction from Senator Obama and the fever swamps to President Bush's speech yesterday was hugely amusing. Bush suckered Obama into a trap and the ease and speed that Obama rushed into it shows just how naive he is. I think Dafydd at Big Lizards has it exactly right. He has three main points:

• "Bush attacked appeasement -- and Obama instantly recognized himself, reacting angrily and defensively."
• "But in reality, I think it is patently obvious that Bush had Obama directly in mind... and that he knew everyone in the country (and especially Obama himself) would "get it."
• "There is a tradition in many fields that when the New Kid first shows up to work, he is given a number of bootless errands and impossible tasks to perform, things that a more experienced worker would instantly recognize as senseless; the stereotypical version is sending the new hire on the assembly line in search of a "left-handed monkey wrench." The trick is based upon ignorance and inexperience... and that is just what Barack Obama evinced in this humiliating exchange."

Yep. I am sometimes tempted to sit out this election and let the carpers and whiners who simply snipe from the sidelines be in charge of things again. They might just learn what responsibility means and grow up accordingly. But if this is the level of ignorance and inexperience we are going to get from a President Obama, I can't.  I just can't. George Bush, the man the left likes to deride as stupid, just played their man like a fiddle in a very basic way. Obama is not ready for prime time.

Sigh: After an inspiring series where they took three out of four from the Boston Red Sox, the Twins reverted to "Little League" form and got swept at home by Toronto. Little mistakes cost them dearly and it's clear that this is a team that has not yet matured to the point where they can consistently go out and play "Big League" ball. When they do they are fun to watch, even if they lose. When they don't, it's just painful. Last night it was two players who were thrown out at home, by a mile, in a 3-2 loss in 11 innings. Sorry guys, you're just not strong enough on offense to waste opportunities like that.

Hmmm: An interesting take from Nibras Kazimi at Talisman Gate on Iranian meddling in Iraq and how it may have affected recent events in Lebanon. The wheels within wheels nature of the Middle East baffles me most of the time and I'm leery of endorsing his view. I do fully agree with him here when he says:

I can't vouch for the report, but the gist of it holds true to what I've been arguing for a while: Iran's influence in Iraq has been eclipsed through Maliki's recent actions.

Maliki is coming into his own; he's no one's puppet.

There's a theme running through the anti-victory groups that Maliki and Sadr's main rival, the Hakims, are really more influenced by Iran than Sadr is. I think that Kazimi is correct to note that by choosing to go the political route, Maliki and and the Hakims have aligned their interests with Iraq as a whole and they are no longer beholden to the Iranians for support.  As Iraq grows and prospers, they will prosper. Sadr made a huge gamble in 2004 and he is losing that bet in 2008. So are the Iranians.

It is common right now to think of Iraq as an American debacle. If we had left sometime in 2005-2007 that would have been cemented in history. Mark my words, only the petulant and self-indulgent will call it an American debacle in five years. Unbiased observers will note that there were two real debacles in Iraq. The first was the Sunni insurgency and its barbaric alignment with AQI. The second was Sadr's decision to align with the Iranians against the Coalition and the elected Iraqi government. Iraq has paid a terrible price for what those two groups have done, and history will not be kind to them, nor will it be kind to those in the west who kissed their asses.

 

Sean Penn Learns Lesson, Warns Obama

"Dude! Don't forget the boat plug."

Actually, what he really said is even funnier:

”I hope that he will understand, if he is the nominee, the degree of disillusionment that will happen if he doesn't become a greater man than he will ever be.”

Uh, like, totally man. But explain to me, master, how does one become greater than one will ever be?

What was that?

"That was my skull! I'm so wasted!"

(no word on if he's been able to kick the smoking habit. I'm guessing no.)

I'll be...

I have to say that I'm impressed with how the Twins played Boston over the last four games. I was pleased to see that they would get no worse than a 2-2 split going into last night's game, but to actually pull it out after spotting the Red Sox three runs in the first was especially gratifying. Twins pitchers shut the champs down after that and the bats continued to be hot. That combination ended up with a 7-3 win and gave the Twins a series win, three games to one. Whoohoo!

Glen Perkins took the loss on Saturday, giving up three runs in six innings. That's not too bad against the impressive Red Sox though. Perkins was called up from AAA to take the spot for the injured Scott Baker and I was pretty sure he was going to get pounded. He didn't though, and I'm fairly impressed by that. We'll see how Kevin Slowey does tonight and how Perkins does on Thursday against Toronto, but at this point my money is on Perkins staying with the team and Slowey or maybe even Bonser being sent back down when Baker returns.

Obviously Boston is the better team, even if the Twins did win this series. I'm really happy with the way they hung in there and scrapped against them and I'm genuinely surprised that they scored so many runs. I'll take 25 runs over a four game stretch anytime, especially with this Twins team. And I'll take that game and a half lead over Cleveland at this point in the season. However, it might be a bit early to be talking like this:

A 20-17 pace plays out to an 88-74 record. I wouldn’t have bet you at the start of the season that the Twins would win 88 games. Now, if you buy the improving team scenario, are we being delusional if we start thinking about them winning 90 or more?

But it's not out of the question. If Cleveland and Detroit were playing anywhere near the spring predictions for them I'd say no way. The Twins took their only series with Cleveland so far 2-1. They went 0-2 against Detroit the first time they met in April and then swept them in three at the beginning of May. They are also up on the White Sox four games to three at this point. All three of those teams were supposed to be significantly better than the Twins and they just aren't so far.

But...talk to me in a couple more weeks. If the Twins can get through the rest of May and still be three or more games over .500, with a reasonably good and healthy five starters, then we can start dreaming about 90 wins.